Nvidia reported earnings last night after the market close, easily surpassing expectations once again.

In Q3, revenues surged to 57.0 billion, up 62% year-on-year and 22% to last quarter, driven by continued demand for data-center GPUs, while margins remained almost unchanged. The company guided confidently for the next quarter, signaling that supply remains the key constraint, not demand.

Markets: Nvidia stock jumped followed by all AI related stocks

My View: during Nvidia’s quarterly earrings call, CEO Jensen Huang delivered the best sales pitch imaginable: “We are sold out.”
This is the perfect psychological trigger. It signals success, dominance, and unstoppable demand. It tells every tech company: order your chips today, before someone else does — or get ready to wait even longer.
Nobody wants to fall behind. Nobody questions whether they truly need it, how they will finance it, or how these investments eventually generate returns.

“We are sold out” - it’s the classic FOMO message: Be smart. Buy now. Don’t lag your competitors.

And it works on first sight.
These three words — “we are sold out” — are enough to restart the entire hype cycle. They revive the chip frenzy and pull investors right back into tech stocks, still showing high valuations, even after the recent smaller correction.

But the real question is now, how long this rush will last.
If the bounce is driven mainly by speculators chasing momentum, the rally could fade quickly. Maybe some institutional investors take this rebound as an opportunity to take profit before the year-end.

Given current market dynamics, this remains my base scenario.

Disclosure: short position Nvidia

Markets are heading into a decisive evening with two events that could define the short-term direction:

Nvidia is going to release the earnings by tonight after the bell. Sales and profits are expected to grow more than 55 percent year-on-year. Investors looking for proof that the explosive AI cycle still has legs in times of discussions that the sector is too expensive and future growth.

The Fed minutes of the October 28-29 FOMC meeting could provide more insight into the depth of the divide that has emerged among policymakers. With official data releases suspended ahead of the October meeting due to the US government shutdown, officials were left to evaluate alternative information that may have added to an emerging sense of caution about further rate cuts. "There's a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle," Powell told reporters last month.
Expectations for December rate cut have fallen sharply from 100% to around 40%, reflecting a market reassessing the Fed’s willingness to ease while inflation remains sticky.

Markets: try to rebound

• US indices clearly in the green led by tech

• Nvidia: up 2.5%

• US 10-year yield: higher at 4.13%

• Gold: back above USD 4’100/oz after yesterday’s drop

• USD: moves higher

• CHF: drops

• Cryptos: continue their down move with Bitcoin close to USD 90k

• Volatility: drops today - remains clearly above 20 level

My View: both events carry significant short-term importance. The Fed minutes may reinforce the picture of a Fed that is not yet ready to cut rates while inflation remains above target and visibility is limited. Market pricing does not yet fully reflect this shift in tone: the probability of a December rate cut has fallen to around 40 percent. However, the odds have still room to drop and impact the market. Rising uncertainty with sticky inflation, late-cycle risks such as a softening labour market, a weaker consumer, and tightening credit conditions are forcing a rethink.

Nvidia, on the other hand, faces expectations that have climbed to unsustainable heights.
The risk: expectations may simply be too high. The AI leader, meanwhile, could be approaching a turning point.Any sign that the growth curve is flattening in case of slower hyperscaler orders, geopolitics hitting China demand, or cautious forward guidance, could trigger a sharp reaction for the whole market. CEO Jensen Huang is known for his bullish tone. The question now is whether even he can keep feeding the narrative at this altitude. The market is highly sensitive to any sign that the tremendous AI growth wave is approaching a more normalised phase.

The combination of rising macro uncertainty and stretched micro expectations increases the likelihood of a more volatile reaction. Tonight’s releases could shape not only the rest of this week’s trading but potentially the narrative into the end of November.

The market may get clearer direction tonight — but it might not be the one investors hoped for.

The week extends its losing streak as global equities open another day in the red — the fourth consecutive decline. Key technical support levels are being tested across major indices, while sentiment gauges remain stuck in extreme fear territory for several days in a row.

On the macro side, the consumer picture continues to deteriorate: Home Depot cut its earnings outlook, adding to concerns that US household spending — the backbone of the economy — is weakening further. Retail-sensitive sectors are showing early signs of stress.

But the bigger shock came from the tech side:
A major Cloudflare outage took down thousands of websites globally, including services connected to ChatGPT, causing multi-hour disruptions. It was a powerful real-world reminder of how dependent global digital infrastructure has become on a small number of critical providers — and how quickly a single outage can cascade across the system.

Markets: Volatility is creeping higher, liquidity is thinning, and buyers remain on the sidelines.

My View: The current market behaviour increasingly resembles the pre-washout phase. With sentiment deeply depressed and technical levels breaking, the risk of forced selling and margin calls is rising. If the sell-off continues, a sharper capitulation move is possible and rather near. Next technical support levels are key to hold.

The Cloudflare outage also didn’t help the broader narrative. It certainly does not support the bullish AI story or revive optimism. Instead, it highlights how interconnected and fragile the system truly is: when one puzzle piece falls, it can drag the rest with it.

I continue to wait for a true washout — a clearing of leveraged positions that would reset risk and create more attractive entry points. Until then, caution remains the better strategy.

The brief rebound during Friday’s US trading session faded already in the first half of the trading session. After an initial push higher, with tech indices even turning slightly positive versus Thursday’s close, buying interest evaporated quickly.
The market then drifted sideways and lower as investor confidence remained fragile.

Markets:

• Weekend Futures are slightly negative

• Cryptos: down to levels last seen in May with Bitcoin falling towards USD 93k

My View: The rebound losing momentum so quickly is not a positive signal. It suggests that the number of willing buyers is thinning out — a clear indication of weakening underlying demand. This reduces the probability that last week’s bounce will turn into a sustained recovery.

With crypto markets showing renewed weakness after breaking key support levels, the risk is growing that equities will mirror this pattern as we enter the new week.
Sentiment remains fragile, leverage in speculative corners is still high, and the market is vulnerable to further downside pressure if no fresh catalysts appear and the doubts on the AI valuation remain.
Investors will focus on Wednesday’s earnings release of Nvidia. Markets could see a wait and see stance and positive sentiment won’t return by then.

For now, caution remains warranted. A stronger washout or a clearer capitulation wave may still be ahead before a more durable bottom can form providing a selective buying sign.

After months of relentless momentum, markets are finally taking a breather. AI valuations—previously treated as untouchable—are coming under renewed scrutiny. Profit-taking is accelerating just as investors start to question it.

At the same time, the macro backdrop becomes more complicated. With the government shutdown delaying key releases such as CPI and labor market data, investors are effectively flying blind. The Federal Reserve’s latest remarks leaned noticeably hawkish, and the market is beginning to doubt that a December rate cut is still on the table.

The combination of valuation doubts, missing data, and a firmer Fed, creates a fragile environment with sentiment turning quickly.

Markets: global sell-off and risk-off stance

• US Futures again lower led by tech stocks with Nasdaq future -1.3%

• US 10-year yield: dropped not massively to 4.08%

• Gold: sees larger swings now trading above USD 4’100/oz

• USD: slightly down

• CHF: strengthens

• Cryptos: sell-off massively with Bitcoin dropping below USD 95k

• Volatility: accelerates

My View: The long-awaited correction is finally here, and it was overdue.

AI stocks pushed too far in a euphoric environment where no one questioned sustainability, whether the sector can justify its massive capital expenditure with real, scalable earnings.
The narrative focused solely on investment—massive AI Capex—while almost no one asked the key question: How will these billions or trillions translate into earnings? What exactly is the business model?

Now the tide is turning. Everyone tries to get out of the same door at the same time, and liquidity disappears fast.

I would wait before buying the dip.
We haven’t seen the “big selling wave” yet, the kind that produces forced liquidations and margin-call washouts with everything moving in the same direction, down. That moment tends to reset positioning and offer genuine opportunities.

Watch also for political noise. A single Trump comment, just as we’ve seen many times, can suddenly stabilize sentiment or trigger a short-term bounce. But structurally, AI needs to prove profitability, not just Capex excitement.

This correction is healthy. It clears the excess, resets risk appetite, and brings back realism and forcing the gamblers out of the market.
The next good entry point will come, but not before the market flushes out the leverage.

America’s longest-ever government shutdown has officially ended after 43 days. Federal workers are returning to their jobs today. Though it may take days or even weeks for agencies to fully resume normal operations. While this is positive news for travelers ahead of Thanksgiving, the data backlog remains significant. The White House is signaling that October’s CPI and jobs report may never be released, leaving a notable gap in the economic picture.

Markets: Uncertainty weighs on sentiment

• US Futures lower led by tech stocks

• US 10-year yield: climbing above 4.11%

• Gold: moves up towards USD 4’250/oz

• USD: continues to fall

• Cryptos: lower with Bitcoin at USD 102k

• Volatility: starts to accelerate

My View: The end of the shutdown removes a political overhang but does not resolve the core issues. The new funding deal only runs until January 30th. Washington has simply bought itself time.
Investors remain partly blind with key inflation and labour data missing at a moment when sentiment is fragile and late-cycle dynamics are becoming more pronounced.
The absence of crucial data increases uncertainty, and markets will rely more heavily on partial indicators, corporate guidance, and high-frequency surveys.
Not to mention the economic loss created by the longest shutdown in history.

I expect a bumpy market phase with a tilt to the downside as uncertainty stays elevated and the Fed’s reaction function becomes harder to assess.

This morning, SoftBank announced that it has sold its entire stake in chipmaker Nvidia, booking USD 5.8 billion in gains. This move comes to finance other AI ventures as SoftBank runs an overall high debt level.
This move combined with news on negative earnings or weak forward guidance from AI players such as CoreWeave or Nebius is reviving questions about overheated valuations. Even SoftBank’s top executives cautioned publicly that the AI sector might already be in a bubble phase.
Adding to this cautious tone, Tesla’s sales in China dropped significantly, feeding additional concerns to the AI enthusiasm.

Markets: triggered a profit-taking in AI-related stocks

• US markets down with Nasdaq losing 0.8%

• US bond market: closed with Veterans day

• Gold falls back to unchanged level at USD 4’115/oz

• USD: lower

• Cryptos: lower with Bitcoin at USD 103k

• Volatility: no signs of fears - almost unchanged

My View: Is this the moment of a game changer?
As already assumed and mentioned yesterday, the relief rally, driven by optimism around ending the US government shutdown, seems to be only short-lived.
Structural headwinds remain in the near term: a pending court decision on tariffs, record debt levels, and a weakening consumer backbone. The K-shaped economy risks dragging growth lower if the middle and lower income groups face tighter budgets and rising job insecurity.

Followers of my commentary know that I see AI valuations as stretched. The sector is pricing in perfection. Investor mood on platforms like Reddit shows big signs of nervousness, only small corrections triggering already large emotional swings, as seen end of last week.

In such euphoric phases, tops are often made quietly, not with a crash, but with the first cracks in confidence.

It is too early to define a shift in momentum. However the number of negative news around the AI topic and number of statements on the overheated valuation of the AI sector is increasing which could soon lead to an overall change in the sentiment.
The coming days will show if the news around SoftBank’s move marks just a wave of profit-taking, or the start of a broader re-rating of the AI dream.

After weeks of political gridlock, Washington appears to be finally reaching an agreement to end the longest government shutdown in history.
The US Senate took a major step toward re-opening the government after a group of moderate Democrats broke with their party leaders and voted to support a deal.
The agreement would provide short-term funding through the end of January, allowing federal operations, including key data releases from the Labor Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis, to resume.

The deal still requires approval by the House of Representatives and the signature of President Donald Trump before officially ending the shutdown.

Markets: positive reaction globally

• US futures jumped on optimism

• US 10-Yield slightly higher at 4.12%

• Gold price jumped more than 2.5%

• USD: unchanged

• Cryptos: higher with Bitcoin back at USD 106k amid renewed risk appetite

• Volatility: falls with risk-on sentiment

My View: The political noise may fade in the short-term, but the underlying fundamentals remain fragile. Consumer confidence sits near multi-year lows, corporate layoffs are increasing, and debt levels are at record highs — all classic late-cycle indicators.
While the end of the shutdown may fuel a short-term relief rally, markets continue to trade more on hope than hard data. For investors, this moment is less about chasing performance and more about reassessing risk exposure.

On Friday, the University of Michigan’s November survey showed US consumer sentiment plunging to 50.3, its lowest level in over three years and the second-lowest since 1978. The reading marks a 6.2% decline from October and is down nearly 30% year-on-year.
The main driver: worries over the ongoing government shutdown, persistent inflation pressures, and growing job market uncertainty.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 53.0 after October’s 53.6 reflecting deep-seated anxiety among households. Sentiment was last this low in June 2022 as inflation hovered around its highest level in 40 years

Markets: stocks initially fell on the weak consumer data but rebounded in the second half of the session

• US stocks closed almost unchanged

• Yields dropped first and later traded higher again

• Gold back above USD 4’000/oz level

• USD: lower

• Cryptos: followed the equity moves

My View: While markets remain captivated by artificial intelligence and mega-cap tech stories, the real backbone of the US economy, the consumer, is flashing warning signals.
Sentiment has been depressed for months, reflecting a cocktail of inflation fatigue, political uncertainty, and job insecurity.
If households continue to feel squeezed, loan repayment stress and weaker discretionary spending could soon translate into slower growth.
We have seen this dynamic before: China’s post-pandemic experience is a clear reminder of how quickly consumption can stall once confidence erodes.
For now, AI headlines may keep investors distracted, but the underlying story could quickly shift from optimism to caution. That deserves close attention in the weeks ahead.

China’s exports in October 2025 fell by 1.1% year-on-year – a sharp reversal from the 8.3% increase in September. The drop was driven especially by a plunge in shipments to the U.S., which fell by around 25% y/y. In the same period, Chinese imports also slowed markedly, growing only 1.0%, versus 7.4% in the prior month.

Exports of rare-earth elements however rose 9% in October (on a monthly basis) — notwithstanding the broader export slowdown.

Markets: Asian shares down this morning led by yesterday’s US sell-off

• Hang Seng: down 0.9%

• China mainland stock indices: down 0.5%

• China yields slightly down with 10-year yield around 1.75%

• CNY: unchanged

My View: The export contraction shows that China’s external demand cushion is fading. Earlier this year, the country benefited from front-loading ahead of US tariff hikes — that rush is now clearly over.

Nevertheless, Beijing retains significant fiscal capacity and can introduce new stimulus at any time. Domestic investors, returning to the market after heavy pandemic-era losses, are adding a layer of positive momentum and helping to stabilize sentiment.
Despite the near-term weakness, China continues to hold strong structural advantages: it remains an economy with higher growth potential, controls the world’s largest rare-earth resources, is deepening trade ties with Europe and Latin America, and still holds the largest stockpile of US Treasuries.

Any large-scale Treasury selling could trigger a sharp spike in US yields — as briefly seen during the volatile overnight session in April — reminding both markets and the White House how tightly global risks are interconnected. Washington is well aware of the importance of avoiding any trade war escalation with China, knowing that financial stability and diplomatic balance are closely linked.

The short-term slowdown does not change the long-term picture. China’s fiscal capacity and strategic leverage keep it a key player as the second largest economy in the world.
Therefore, the allocation in the ETFMandate portfolio remains substantial, still with the plan to add more exposure in case of a sharp drop.

US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, sharply up from 54,064 in September, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This marks the wirst October for layoff announcements since 2003.
This comes just one day after the ADP employment report showed a better-than-expected gain of 42,000 jobs, marking the first positive month since July.

Some industries are now correcting after the pandemic-era hiring boom, while AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs are leading many firms to freeze or reduce hiring

Markets: nervousness persists across markets.

• Global stocks: rally is loosing steam

• Yields almost unchanged

• US dollar: drops

• Gold: back above USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: negative trend continues - Bitcoin falls towards USD 100’000

• Volatility: VIX Index up

My View: We get some labor market data even with the shutdown, the longest one in history. The data is published by private institutions.
The divergence could be the sign of a late-cycle labor market.
While ADP reflects current payroll strength, the Challenger report signals forward-looking caution — companies are preparing for slower growth or weaker demand ahead.
Such mixed signals are typical before a turning point: employment still resilient on paper, yet corporate sentiment turning defensive.

Markets remain on edge, as illustrated by Tuesday’s panic followed by yesterday’s relief rally.
After investors fled from AI-related stocks on warnings of high valuations and sings of a bubble, sentiment quickly reversed — the familiar “buy the dip” reflex returned.
The question now is whether this remains a profitable strategy, or if investors are simply ignoring the growing late-cycle risks.

ADP employment change came in better than expected, with 42k new private-sector jobs added in October (25k expected). This marks the first positive reading since July, suggesting a stabilizing labor market despite recent concerns.

ADP stands for Automatic Data Processing, one of the largest payroll service providers in the United States.
The ADP Job Report is a monthly employment report that estimates how many jobs were added or lost in the private sector in the US. It is based on real payroll data from millions of workers processed by ADP.

Markets: nervousness persists across markets.

• Global stocks stable after yesterday’s sell-off with wider swings

• Yields higher with job data — US 10-year yield at 4.12%

• US dollar: higher

• Gold: 1.3% higher close to USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: sideways after Bitcoin fell two times below USD 100’000

• Volatility: VIX Index sideways today hovering below 20 level

My View: The Fed cut rates at its last meeting, citing weakness in the labor market. Now, the ADP showing renewed job creation. As there is no additional government data available due to the shutdown, the narrative could shift quickly.
If incoming economic data continues to signal a firmer labor market, expectations for a December rate cut may fade, particularly with inflation still clearly running above the Fed’s target.

Volatility remains present and may even increase as macro uncertainty rises.

US stock futures dipped after Palantir shares slid yesterday evening in post-market trading. Despite delivering a quarterly sales beat and lifting its full-year outlook, investors reacted to concerns about the company’s lofty valuation. Markets are finally starting to question the pricing of AI-exposed names.

Markets: profit taking

• Global stocks mostly down

• Yields sideways to with the US 10-year yield slightly below 4.1%

• US dollar: up

• Gold: falls below USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: continue to fall with Bitcoin now at USD 103’000

• Volatility: VIX index jumps towards 20

My View: Surprise, surprise? Not really. When sentiment runs this hot, it only takes one spark for investors to start reconsidering the price they are willing to pay. We are entering the phase where narratives get tested and valuations suddenly matter again.

Timing is always the tricky part in speculative environments. There is nothing wrong with taking profits gradually into strength.
Momentum breaks fast when confidence shifts. Selective hedging or adding tactical short exposure can work, too, although this remains a tool for experienced investors only.

Excess liquidity and enthusiasm can stretch bubbles far longer than logic would suggest.
The question is now: is it the beginning of a shift in the momentum or do investors buy the dip as they did during previous short and small market dips.

President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded a closely watched summit, formally announcing a 1-year truce in the trade and tariff dispute between the world’s two largest economies. The agreement pauses escalating measures that had weighed on global markets in recent months.

Talks centered on US tariffs and China’s export controls on rare earth materials. The deal includes a mutual freeze on additional port fees for 12 months and a temporary suspension of China’s rare earth export restrictions.
Further key points include:

• US tariff rate on certain China-linked goods, including fentanyl-related products, reduced from 20% to 10%, with a pledge from Beijing to curb illicit shipments

• Broad US tariffs on Chinese goods lowered from 57% to 47%

• Trump declared rare-earth concerns “settled”

• US will mediate between Beijing and Nvidia regarding chip export issues

• China to increase US energy purchases, with specific reference to Alaskan oil and gas

• China to resume large-scale soybean buying “immediately”

Markets: profit taking in combination with earings

• Global stocks trading negative

• US yields higher (after Fed policy meeting) with the 10-year yield around 4.1%

• US dollar: stronger

• Gold: regains ground trading around the USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: trading negative

My View: This outcome: relief, but not resolution. As predicted in my earlier comments this week, investors traded the classic playbook: buy the rumor, sell the fact.

A temporary truce reduces tail risk for now and supports risk assets in the short term, yet deeper structural issues remain untouched.

I doubt this represents genuine one-year stability. Geopolitical and economic competition between the US and China runs far beyond tariffs and soybeans. The pause may cool sentiment for a few months, although I expect renewed friction and policy noise as both sides defend strategic priorities.

Commodities stay in the spotlight. Energy, industrial metals, and strategic materials will continue to play a critical role in geopolitical positioning and supply chain security. Volatility will resurface whenever headlines shift from diplomacy back to confrontation.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to announce a 25bps rate cut today — despite operating half blind. With the labour market data missing due to the ongoing US government shutdown, policymakers are making a decision without one of their key reference points.
Recent inflation readings, at around 3%, remain clearly above the Fed’s 2% target, offering little justification for a cut from a purely data-driven perspective.

Markets: US markets higher fueled by hope on rate cut and trade deal

• US Futures trading positive with Nasdaq +0.5% (after strong rally during last days)

• US yields tending sideways with the 10-year yield around 4.0%

• US dollar: stronger today

• Gold: regains ground and back above the USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: trading sideways

My View: I see a weak case for cutting rates at this stage. Latest GDP data indicates a 3.9% growth. Inflation is still well above target. The labor market has some signs of slowing but not deteriorating. With unemployment at 4.3% indicates a labour market close to what the Fed calls “maximum employment”.
The Fed is clearly under political and market pressure to deliver, but that doesn’t mean it should.
If the Fed decides not to cut, markets would likely react sharply. Yet, by cutting now, it risks fueling the existing market bubble, as equity leverage stands at new record highs. There’s no real urgency to lower rates — and doing so without full data could come at a high price later.

The AI ecosystem continues to expand at full speed. The latest example: Nvidia taking a stake in Nokia — a move that highlights how deeply intertwined the global AI network of investments and partnerships has become. At the center stands OpenAI, surrounded by the major players Microsoft, Broadcom, AMD, Google, Meta, and an ever-growing circle of smaller partners and suppliers.

Yesterday, Qualcomm joined the AI race by unveiling a new AI chip for data centers, positioning itself to compete directly with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. The company hopes to secure a share of the booming demand for AI infrastructure and training capacity — but the question remains: when will it be truly welcomed into the “AI circle”?

Markets: US Tech stocks extended their recent gains - Europe weak

• Qualcomm: jumping more than 20% yesterday - partly giving up gains

• Nokia: jumping 20%

• Nasdaq: new records up almost 2% yesterday and 0.5% today

• Chip sector: on fire by the news

My View: The arrival of a new competitor is rarely a good sign mid-term. Competition tends to push prices down, compress margins, and eventually hurt earnings growth. While investors still celebrate every AI headline, the fundamentals suggest that the risk-reward balance is shifting.

I do not follow the investor crowd here. The ample warning light in the tech sector has switched to red — a correction would not only be healthy but likely inevitable.

Optimism reigns on the trading floor as investors cheer signs of progress in global trade negotiations. After signing several smaller separate trade and mineral agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and a trade framework with Thailand as well as Vietnam over weekend, markets are now focusing on the potential breakthrough between the US and China. President Trump is expected to meet President Xi later this week, fueling hopes that both sides will reach an agreement before the 10 November deadline, when new tariffs are set to take effect. Both sides showed confidence on the ongoing negotiations

Markets: US stocks continued on the Friday rally

• US stocks: new records with Nasdaq up over 1.5%

• China stocks trading positive also on good economic numbers

• US yields bit higher again with the 10-year back above 4%

• Gold: loses ground - falling below USD 4’000/oz intraday

• Cryptos take a pause after weekend gains

My View: This could be a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
While markets rally on optimism, the underlying geostrategic tensions between the two nations remain unresolved.Even if a short-term deal is reached, structural differences—technology access, supply-chain control, and national security—will not vanish overnight.

Trump’s decision to unexpectedly announce 10% tariffs on Canada after halting negotiations serves as a reminder of his unpredictable stance on trade.
Investors should therefore stay cautious: the celebratory mood could quickly shift once the deal details emerge or if talks take another turn.

Today’s US inflation data came in higher on a monthly basis — yet still slightly below market expectations. For September, US inflation and core inflation is at 3.0% year-on-year while analysts expected the number at 3.1%.
The mixed outcome offered just enough relief for investors betting on a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.

Markets: US stocks jump aim for records - yields lower

• US Futures: positive reaction on the numbers with Nasdaq Future up 0.9%

• US yields lower with the 10-year fell below 4% again

• Gold: jumps on the news while being in a take profit trend (USD 4’120/oz)

• Cryptos up with sings of risk-on

My View: Investors see the numbers as a confirmation for pricing in a rate cut by the Fed, interpreting today’s data that inflation remains contained enough for policy easing.

The market’s reaction shows how sensitive sentiment remains to any sign of monetary relief — with liquidity expectations driving nearly all asset classes at the moment.

However, US stock valuations are priced for perfection. As seen by the latest earning results from Netflix and Tesla, investors are reacting negatively as expectations are sky-high.

Oil returned to the spotlight after President Trump announced fresh sanctions on major Russian oil companies. The move aims to restrict Russian crude sales to India — a key buyer — in an effort to cut financial support for Moscow’s war efforts.

Markets: Oil and energy stocks gain

• WTI Crude oil: surged more than 5%, jumping from USD 58 to over USD 61/barrel

• Energy stocks sector: rally, trading nearly 2% higher in early market actionhe broader oil market remains in a phase of oversupply.

My View: The broader oil market remains in a phase of oversupply with US producers heavily drilling and with the OPEC+ decision to increase production in a period of world economy rather slowing.
However, such geopolitical shocks can trigger sharp short-term moves, especially as investors are currently rather positioned short. A wave of short-covering could now fuel some gains in the near term.

Following last night’s announcement, I added exposure to the oil market in after-hours trading and plan to include a few select energy names with short-term upside potential due to undervaluation.

Disclosure ETFMandate portfolio: long position in Crude Oil and energy sector ETF

Netflix reported its quarterly earnings yesterday after the close. Despite delivering solid subscriber growth, the market focused on weaker-than-expected revenue guidance and signs of slowing momentum in its ad-supported business. Shares dropped around 7% in pre-market trading, setting a cautious tone for the rest of the “Magnificent 7” ahead of their earnings. Tonight Tesla will release its earnings after the market close.

Markets: US Futures trading almost flat

• Netflix: down 7% pre-market

• Tesla: unchanged pre-market

My View: Netflix is the first of the “Magnificent 7” to report, and the initial reaction is clearly negative. The question now is whether this signals broader weakness across the mega-cap tech space or remains an isolated case.
Tesla will report after-hours tonight. Given the market’s current sensitivity to growth and margins, expectations are high. Focus will also be on the robotaxi project, maybe the key driver for sentiment. Any disappointment could lead to further pressure on the group and weigh on overall sentiment.

For now, the tone is cautious: one weak report doesn’t make a trend, but it could remind investors how much perfection is already priced into these names.

Disclosure ETFMandate portfolio: short positions in Tesla and Netflix