05.11.25 - Better job data

ADP employment change came in better than expected, with 42k new private-sector jobs added in October (25k expected). This marks the first positive reading since July, suggesting a stabilizing labor market despite recent concerns.

ADP stands for Automatic Data Processing, one of the largest payroll service providers in the United States.
The ADP Job Report is a monthly employment report that estimates how many jobs were added or lost in the private sector in the US. It is based on real payroll data from millions of workers processed by ADP.

Markets: nervousness persists across markets.

• Global stocks stable after yesterday’s sell-off with wider swings

• Yields higher with job data — US 10-year yield at 4.12%

• US dollar: higher

• Gold: 1.3% higher close to USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: sideways after Bitcoin fell two times below USD 100’000

• Volatility: VIX Index sideways today hovering below 20 level

My View: The Fed cut rates at its last meeting, citing weakness in the labor market. Now, the ADP showing renewed job creation. As there is no additional government data available due to the shutdown, the narrative could shift quickly.
If incoming economic data continues to signal a firmer labor market, expectations for a December rate cut may fade, particularly with inflation still clearly running above the Fed’s target.

Volatility remains present and may even increase as macro uncertainty rises.

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