11.11.25 - SoftBank’s Nvidia exit - a turning point?
This morning, SoftBank announced that it has sold its entire stake in chipmaker Nvidia, booking USD 5.8 billion in gains. This move comes to finance other AI ventures as SoftBank runs an overall high debt level.
This move combined with news on negative earnings or weak forward guidance from AI players such as CoreWeave or Nebius is reviving questions about overheated valuations. Even SoftBank’s top executives cautioned publicly that the AI sector might already be in a bubble phase.
Adding to this cautious tone, Tesla’s sales in China dropped significantly, feeding additional concerns to the AI enthusiasm.
Markets: triggered a profit-taking in AI-related stocks
US markets down with Nasdaq losing 0.8%
US bond market: closed with Veterans day
Gold falls back to unchanged level at USD 4’115/oz
USD: lower
Cryptos: lower with Bitcoin at USD 103k
Volatility: no signs of fears - almost unchanged
My View: Is this the moment of a game changer?
As already assumed and mentioned yesterday, the relief rally, driven by optimism around ending the US government shutdown, seems to be only short-lived.
Structural headwinds remain in the near term: a pending court decision on tariffs, record debt levels, and a weakening consumer backbone. The K-shaped economy risks dragging growth lower if the middle and lower income groups face tighter budgets and rising job insecurity.
Followers of my commentary know that I see AI valuations as stretched. The sector is pricing in perfection. Investor mood on platforms like Reddit shows big signs of nervousness, only small corrections triggering already large emotional swings, as seen end of last week.
In such euphoric phases, tops are often made quietly, not with a crash, but with the first cracks in confidence.
It is too early to define a shift in momentum. However the number of negative news around the AI topic and number of statements on the overheated valuation of the AI sector is increasing which could soon lead to an overall change in the sentiment.
The coming days will show if the news around SoftBank’s move marks just a wave of profit-taking, or the start of a broader re-rating of the AI dream.
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