10.11.25 - Shutdown over - yes/no

After weeks of political gridlock, Washington appears to be finally reaching an agreement to end the longest government shutdown in history.
The US Senate took a major step toward re-opening the government after a group of moderate Democrats broke with their party leaders and voted to support a deal.
The agreement would provide short-term funding through the end of January, allowing federal operations, including key data releases from the Labor Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis, to resume.

The deal still requires approval by the House of Representatives and the signature of President Donald Trump before officially ending the shutdown.

Markets: positive reaction globally

• US futures jumped on optimism

• US 10-Yield slightly higher at 4.12%

• Gold price jumped more than 2.5%

• USD: unchanged

• Cryptos: higher with Bitcoin back at USD 106k amid renewed risk appetite

• Volatility: falls with risk-on sentiment

My View: The political noise may fade in the short-term, but the underlying fundamentals remain fragile. Consumer confidence sits near multi-year lows, corporate layoffs are increasing, and debt levels are at record highs — all classic late-cycle indicators.
While the end of the shutdown may fuel a short-term relief rally, markets continue to trade more on hope than hard data. For investors, this moment is less about chasing performance and more about reassessing risk exposure.

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