13.11.25 - Longest-ever shutdown ends

America’s longest-ever government shutdown has officially ended after 43 days. Federal workers are returning to their jobs today. Though it may take days or even weeks for agencies to fully resume normal operations. While this is positive news for travelers ahead of Thanksgiving, the data backlog remains significant. The White House is signaling that October’s CPI and jobs report may never be released, leaving a notable gap in the economic picture.

Markets: Uncertainty weighs on sentiment

• US Futures lower led by tech stocks

• US 10-year yield: climbing above 4.11%

• Gold: moves up towards USD 4’250/oz

• USD: continues to fall

• Cryptos: lower with Bitcoin at USD 102k

• Volatility: starts to accelerate

My View: The end of the shutdown removes a political overhang but does not resolve the core issues. The new funding deal only runs until January 30th. Washington has simply bought itself time.
Investors remain partly blind with key inflation and labour data missing at a moment when sentiment is fragile and late-cycle dynamics are becoming more pronounced.
The absence of crucial data increases uncertainty, and markets will rely more heavily on partial indicators, corporate guidance, and high-frequency surveys.
Not to mention the economic loss created by the longest shutdown in history.

I expect a bumpy market phase with a tilt to the downside as uncertainty stays elevated and the Fed’s reaction function becomes harder to assess.

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