24.10.25 - Inflation print: higher but below expectations

Today’s US inflation data came in higher on a monthly basis — yet still slightly below market expectations. For September, US inflation and core inflation is at 3.0% year-on-year while analysts expected the number at 3.1%.
The mixed outcome offered just enough relief for investors betting on a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.

Markets: US stocks jump aim for records - yields lower

• US Futures: positive reaction on the numbers with Nasdaq Future up 0.9%

• US yields lower with the 10-year fell below 4% again

• Gold: jumps on the news while being in a take profit trend (USD 4’120/oz)

• Cryptos up with sings of risk-on

My View: Investors see the numbers as a confirmation for pricing in a rate cut by the Fed, interpreting today’s data that inflation remains contained enough for policy easing.

The market’s reaction shows how sensitive sentiment remains to any sign of monetary relief — with liquidity expectations driving nearly all asset classes at the moment.

However, US stock valuations are priced for perfection. As seen by the latest earning results from Netflix and Tesla, investors are reacting negatively as expectations are sky-high.

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