27.10.25 - Optimism reigns - possible trade deal
Optimism reigns on the trading floor as investors cheer signs of progress in global trade negotiations. After signing several smaller separate trade and mineral agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and a trade framework with Thailand as well as Vietnam over weekend, markets are now focusing on the potential breakthrough between the US and China. President Trump is expected to meet President Xi later this week, fueling hopes that both sides will reach an agreement before the 10 November deadline, when new tariffs are set to take effect. Both sides showed confidence on the ongoing negotiations
Markets: US stocks continued on the Friday rally
US stocks: new records with Nasdaq up over 1.5%
China stocks trading positive also on good economic numbers
US yields bit higher again with the 10-year back above 4%
Gold: loses ground - falling below USD 4’000/oz intraday
Cryptos take a pause after weekend gains
My View: This could be a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
While markets rally on optimism, the underlying geostrategic tensions between the two nations remain unresolved.Even if a short-term deal is reached, structural differences—technology access, supply-chain control, and national security—will not vanish overnight.
Trump’s decision to unexpectedly announce 10% tariffs on Canada after halting negotiations serves as a reminder of his unpredictable stance on trade.
Investors should therefore stay cautious: the celebratory mood could quickly shift once the deal details emerge or if talks take another turn.
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