19.11.25 - All eyes on Nvidia - and the Fed minutes
Markets are heading into a decisive evening with two events that could define the short-term direction:
Nvidia is going to release the earnings by tonight after the bell. Sales and profits are expected to grow more than 55 percent year-on-year. Investors looking for proof that the explosive AI cycle still has legs in times of discussions that the sector is too expensive and future growth.
The Fed minutes of the October 28-29 FOMC meeting could provide more insight into the depth of the divide that has emerged among policymakers. With official data releases suspended ahead of the October meeting due to the US government shutdown, officials were left to evaluate alternative information that may have added to an emerging sense of caution about further rate cuts. "There's a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle," Powell told reporters last month.
Expectations for December rate cut have fallen sharply from 100% to around 40%, reflecting a market reassessing the Fed’s willingness to ease while inflation remains sticky.
Markets: try to rebound
US indices clearly in the green led by tech
Nvidia: up 2.5%
US 10-year yield: higher at 4.13%
Gold: back above USD 4’100/oz after yesterday’s drop
USD: moves higher
CHF: drops
Cryptos: continue their down move with Bitcoin close to USD 90k
Volatility: drops today - remains clearly above 20 level
My View: both events carry significant short-term importance. The Fed minutes may reinforce the picture of a Fed that is not yet ready to cut rates while inflation remains above target and visibility is limited. Market pricing does not yet fully reflect this shift in tone: the probability of a December rate cut has fallen to around 40 percent. However, the odds have still room to drop and impact the market. Rising uncertainty with sticky inflation, late-cycle risks such as a softening labour market, a weaker consumer, and tightening credit conditions are forcing a rethink.
Nvidia, on the other hand, faces expectations that have climbed to unsustainable heights.
The risk: expectations may simply be too high. The AI leader, meanwhile, could be approaching a turning point.Any sign that the growth curve is flattening in case of slower hyperscaler orders, geopolitics hitting China demand, or cautious forward guidance, could trigger a sharp reaction for the whole market. CEO Jensen Huang is known for his bullish tone. The question now is whether even he can keep feeding the narrative at this altitude. The market is highly sensitive to any sign that the tremendous AI growth wave is approaching a more normalised phase.
The combination of rising macro uncertainty and stretched micro expectations increases the likelihood of a more volatile reaction. Tonight’s releases could shape not only the rest of this week’s trading but potentially the narrative into the end of November.
The market may get clearer direction tonight — but it might not be the one investors hoped for.
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