18.11.25 - Crash ahead?

The week extends its losing streak as global equities open another day in the red — the fourth consecutive decline. Key technical support levels are being tested across major indices, while sentiment gauges remain stuck in extreme fear territory for several days in a row.

On the macro side, the consumer picture continues to deteriorate: Home Depot cut its earnings outlook, adding to concerns that US household spending — the backbone of the economy — is weakening further. Retail-sensitive sectors are showing early signs of stress.

But the bigger shock came from the tech side:
A major Cloudflare outage took down thousands of websites globally, including services connected to ChatGPT, causing multi-hour disruptions. It was a powerful real-world reminder of how dependent global digital infrastructure has become on a small number of critical providers — and how quickly a single outage can cascade across the system.

Markets: Volatility is creeping higher, liquidity is thinning, and buyers remain on the sidelines.

My View: The current market behaviour increasingly resembles the pre-washout phase. With sentiment deeply depressed and technical levels breaking, the risk of forced selling and margin calls is rising. If the sell-off continues, a sharper capitulation move is possible and rather near. Next technical support levels are key to hold.

The Cloudflare outage also didn’t help the broader narrative. It certainly does not support the bullish AI story or revive optimism. Instead, it highlights how interconnected and fragile the system truly is: when one puzzle piece falls, it can drag the rest with it.

I continue to wait for a true washout — a clearing of leveraged positions that would reset risk and create more attractive entry points. Until then, caution remains the better strategy.

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