The September inflation figures, the Fed’s preferred gauge, were finally released.
Core PCE inflation and PCE inflation came in at 2.8% YoY, slightly below expectations of 2.9% resp. in-line with 2.8%, offering a modest sign of cooling. On a monthly basis core PCE inflation was 0.2% while PCE inflation remained at 0.3%, both in-line with analysts expectations.

Markets: a brief jump after the release

• Equities giving up earlier gains

• Bonds: yields move higher — 10-year yield at 4.13%

• Gold: remains above USD 4’250/oz level

• USD: almost unchanged

• Cryptos: falling broadly with Bitcoin below USD 89k

My View: Today’s PCE release doesn’t materially shift the picture for the Fed. Inflation is cooling slightly, however remains above the level needed to justify an immediate rate cut.

Markets were hoping for a clearer disinflation signal, but instead received another “not good enough, not bad enough” print.

The bigger story remains the ongoing fragility beneath the surface. Positioning is still stretched in several areas, and liquidity pockets are thinning. Any disappointment, whether on data or policy, could trigger outsized reactions. This is not a market trading on conviction, but on hopes and fears.
Until there is a decisive shift in inflation or labour data, volatility could see spikes and the risk of sharp swings persists.

Japan’s 10-year government bond yield climbed above 1.94% today, the highest level since 2007. The move reflects increasingly firm expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) may raise interest rates this month, moving away from decades with ultra-loose policy.

Expectations intensified after BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda voiced confidence in Japan’s economic momentum and reiterated that the central bank will carefully evaluate the costs and benefits of a rate hike and act when appropriate.

A key driver remains the ongoing weakness of the yen, with USD/JPY trading above 155, a level that has historically triggered discomfort among policymakers.
Persistent currency depreciation increases import costs, fuels domestic inflation pressures, and raises the likelihood of monetary tightening.

Markets: increasing nervousness from leveraged investors with yen-loans

• JPY started to stabilize this week after long weakening cycle

• Japan Bond yields: higher with the 10-year yield above 1.94%

• Japan Stock Market: larger swings during last trading sessions

My View: The weak yen is becoming a structural issue for Japan and for global markets.

For years, investors tapped ultra-cheap yen loans to finance higher-yielding assets worldwide. If the BoJ now raises rates, these borrowers face rising funding costs, creating pressure to unwind positions. This can trigger forced selling, reduce liquidity, and amplify volatility across asset classes — not only in Japan but globally.

We have witnessed parts of this dynamic earlier this year: April’s sudden volatility and this week’s sharp intraday moves serve as reminders of how sensitive markets are to shifts in Japan’s monetary stance.

A rate hike would mark a fundamental shift:

• the end of an era of nearly cost-free yen borrowing,

• the re-pricing of the global carry trade,

• and renewed pressure on risk assets that benefited from abundant leverage.

In general, higher interest rates in Japan could lead to a stronger Yen which is usually negatively correlated to Japanese stocks.

The next BoJ monetary-policy meeting is scheduled for the 16-18 December and the announcement for Friday December 19 with the potential to rise rates by 25bps from currently 0.5% to 0.75%.

The BoJ sits at a critical juncture. Any move to tighten policy risks unleashing broader market adjustments, and the current backdrop of weak yen, rising yields, and leveraged positioning increases that risk.

The private payroll processor ADP released a weak employment report.

Private-sector employers shed in November. ADP private payrolls had been expected to show a 10,000–40,000 job gain. Instead, the report delivered a 32,000 job decline, compared with forecasts for a modest gain. According to ADP, the decline was driven primarily by a sharp pullback among small businesses, which are typically the first to feel tightening financial conditions.

The next official look at November’s job date will be on December 16 when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases its delayed employment report for the month.

Markets: try to digest data

• Equities trading sideways to partly loweer

• Bonds: yields mainly lower — 10-year yield at 4.08%

• Gold: higher approaching the USD 4’250/oz

• USD: falls

• Cryptos: sideways after regaining last weeks level with Bitcoin back to USD 92k

• Volatility: VIX unchanged around 16

My View: The narrative is shifting quickly, and not in the way markets hoped. The labour market is no longer just “cooling”. It is flashing some early stress signals, with small businesses showing cracks first. This is typically where broader weakness begins.
Rate cuts driven by economic deterioration are not bullish.

Fed may cut next week, but the motivation matters. Markets still assign an 85–87% probability to a 25-basis-point cut. If the economy is slowing more abruptly than anticipated, the market’s soft-landing conviction becomes fragile.
Markets may not be pricing the “why” behind a December cut. That gap could lead to renewed swings across asset classes.

Attention now turns to privately sourced data on services activity in November for insight into inflation, offering earlier clues on price dynamics. The next official update on consumer prices, the PCE print due Friday, is still catching up on September data and is therefore lagging real-time market conditions.

Forced selling sends new shockwaves through global markets
A new wave of selling pressure hit global markets overnight, triggered by forced deleveraging in the crypto space. The move began during the Asian trading session, where fears of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) intensified with yen continuing to weaken. Investors were pushed to reduce leveraged positions once again, a dynamic reminiscent of earlier stress episodes this year in April.

Adding to the pressure, early macro indicators out of Japan and China released in morning and later in the US showed renewed softness, reinforcing concerns that economy remains fragile. The combination of forced selling, macro uncertainty and shifting rate expectations set the tone for a risk-off day globally.

Markets: red across the board

• Equities fall globally

• Bonds: losing ground globally — 10-year yield climbs to 4.09%

• Gold: climbing and approaches latest record highs, now at USD 4’250/oz while silver price reaches record highs with USD 58

• USD: sees continued pressure

• Cryptos: brand sell-off, Bitcoin falling below USD 84k

• Volatility: VIX higher with renewed uncertainties

My View: the latest market move is less about fundamentals today and more about forced mechanics. With yen dropping to record lows, rate-hike fears emerge in Japan, pushing leveraged investors — especially those using JPY as a funding currency — to unwind positions quickly. Crypto is often the first area where liquidations accelerate, but the spillover into equities and commodities is becoming increasingly visible.

This environment is defined by fragile liquidity, elevated leverage, and the field where speculators conviction fading quickly. A single spark can trigger broad selling. Today’s trigger was in Asia, but the underlying vulnerability is global.

The last days demonstrate how sensitive investors are to any shift in rate expectations, whether from the Fed or, increasingly, the BOJ. With inflation concerns resurfacing and macro indicators from Asia disappointing, volatility is likely to stay elevated.

For now, staying disciplined remains key. Forced selling episodes often create noise, but they also reveal where the real cracks in positioning lie. More waves could follow.

The market is once again shifting its narrative. Today’s economic data boosted hopes for an early Federal Reserve rate cut, pushing the probability of a 25bps cut in December to 85%, up from below 30% just one week ago.

Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 216,000 for the week ending November 22 — lower than the expected 225,000.
This is hardly a sign of a weakening labor market. In fact, it's uncomfortably resilient for a market betting on imminent rate cuts.

Markets: FOMO before the holiday

• Equities higher

• US 10-year yield unchanged at 4.0%

• Gold: pushing above USD 4’150/oz

• USD: continued pressure

• Cryptos: lifted by the same momentum, Bitcoin rising towards USD 90k

• Volatility: VIX slipping further to 17

My View: The current optimism on Wall Street is built more on hope than on evidence.

America’s economy is providing just the right amount of disappointment to fuel dovish dreams — softening retail sales, moderating inflation prints, and now a mixed bag of labor indicators. Markets welcome every negative surprise as a positive for policy.
It’s a remarkable turnaround, and a clear sign of how quickly sentiment can flip when investors are desperate for good news.

This optimism was sparked by softer-than-expected data, reinforcing the idea that the U.S. economy is cooling just enough to justify easier monetary policy. But beneath the surface, not everything aligns with that story.
The jobless claims do hardly give a sign of a weakening labor market. In fact, it's uncomfortably resilient for a market betting on imminent rate cuts. Today’s number may give the Fed a reason to pause and reassess, especially as policymakers remain focused on labor-market softness as a key precondition for easing.

Add the political rumor mill, including the potential appointment of Kevin Hassett, a Trump-aligned economist known for dovish tendencies, to lead the Fed, and investors are pricing in a kind of early Christmas present.

But today’s jobless claims number is a reminder: The labor market is not breaking.
And without clearer signs of weakness, the Fed may still decide to wait.

For now, markets are ignoring that nuance. FOMO is running the show, and that always increases the risk of exaggerated moves in both directions.

Producer prices released this afternoon added fuel to the market’s regained “Fed-cut-in-December” narrative.
The PPI rose 0.3% in September, in line with expectations, after a -0.1% decline the month before.
The Core PPI (ex Food & Energy) showed a much softer picture, increasing only 0.2% versus the estimated 0.4%, and down sharply from 0.6% in August.

On the consumer side, the cooling trend became more visible: Retail sales in September rose just 0.2% MoM, half the expected 0.4% and well below August’s 0.6%.
Consumer confidence continues to fall, tanking in November to 88.7 from 95.5 level in October.

This combination, softer consumer momentum and benign producer prices, gave traders additional confidence that the Fed may pivot sooner rather than later.

Markets: Volatility inside the equity market increased, with indices showing larger intraday swings, but the second half of the session stayed comfortably in the green.

• Equities higher, led by consumer names

• US 10-year yield lower, trading briefly below 4.0%

• Gold: firmly above USD 4’100/oz

• USD: under pressure

• Cryptos: continued broad swings, Bitcoin at USD 87k

• Volatility: VIX slipped back below 20

My View: Yesterday’s rebound extended modestly, supported by lower volumes and a renewed belief that the Fed may cut rates in December.
But this narrative selectively ignores the emerging weakness of the US consumer, the true backbone of the economy, accounting for nearly 70% of GDP.

The trend is clear: Spending is slowing, delinquencies are rising, debt levels remain stretched, more households are struggling to cover monthly bills.
At some point, markets will be forced to refocus on this reality. And when they do, the adjustment could be sharp and sudden, potentially triggered by a credit event, similar to what we saw only a few weeks ago.

For now, regained optimism prevails on the traders front. But beneath the surface, the consumer is flashing warning signs that should not be ignored.

The holiday-shortened week puts the spotlight firmly on the U.S. consumer. With Thanksgiving ahead and Black Friday sales underway, this is the key test of real-world spending appetite. Early indicators are not encouraging: consumer sentiment remained around its lowest level in Friday’s report, highlighting fatigue at a time when households typically accelerate purchases.

Markets briefly rallied on Friday after the odds for a December rate cut jumped from below 30% to 70%. This move was triggered by remarks from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams who hinted at room for near-term monetary easing. Investors immediately translated this into hopes for a December rate cut, lifting risk appetite away from the lowest levels.

Markets: higher market swings continue amid investors nervousness

• US futures higher with Nasdaq +1% driven by Googles share price

• Bonds: yields slightly lower with US 10-year yield below 4.05%

• Gold: trades higher trying to reclaim USD 4’100/oz level

• USD: unchanged

• Cryptos: give up latest gains over weekend with Bitcoin falling from USD 88k below 86k

• Volatility: VIX remains well above 20, however lower from Thursday spike

My View: Investors are ignoring the real backbone. Recent market focus has been dominated by AI, valuations, and earnings narratives. But the reality check is the consumer: nearly 70% of US GDP depends on household spending. And the signals are weakening:

• Delinquencies on leasing and auto loans continue to rise, a classic warning sign of household stress.

• Tariffs are slowly feeding into higher prices, making durable goods more expensive just as budgets tighten.

• Savings buffers are thin, and credit card APRs are near historic highs.

All this comes at a moment when the market is highly sensitive to data and speculation. Expectations for a rate cut may provide short-term relief rallies, but the underlying consumer picture is far more important, and far more fragile.

A continued deleveraging process remains likely, with markets reacting in outsized fashion to every piece of data or Fed communication. Volatility should remain elevated. Big swings on both sides are possible as positioning remains thin and macro uncertainty high.

The AI story is still capturing the headlines. Google caught the attention by its AI model launch Gemini 3.0. But the consumer could decide the next market leg. If Black Friday fails to impress, it may confirm what sentiment and rising delinquencies are already telling us: the backbone of the US economy is showing early signs of strain.

In such an environment, elevated volatility, sharp intraday reversals, and continued deleveraging should not come as a surprise.

The market is entering its first meaningful stress test of this cycle, driven by a broad deleveraging wave. The initial trigger came from the crypto space, where prices have fallen sharply in recent days. With highly leveraged positions under pressure, the forced unwinding is now spilling over into equities. Speculators and leveraged investors are being pushed to cut exposure quickly to meet tightening margin requirements.

Yesterday’s market reversal was sparked by a shift in rate expectations. With the US Bureau of Labor Statistics unable to publish the October and November jobs data before the December FOMC meeting due to the government shutdown, the Fed is flying partially blind. The assumption now is that the Fed will not cut rates in December. Investors had priced in a 25 bps cut. This is now being erased, prompting a swift market re-pricing.

Markets: global unwinding process

• US futures lower in early trading

• Bonds: yields fall globally with the US 10-year yield dropping to 4.06% as safe haven demand accelerates

• Gold: down almost 1% trading at USD 4’040/oz - together with falling commodity prices

• USD: unchanged

• CHF: slightly stronger

• Cryptos: tumble with Bitcoin close to USD 81k

• Volatility: VIX rises over 27, signaling some fear

My View: Forced deleveraging is now the dominant driver and it can accelerate quickly.

This is exactly the type of environment I anticipated and positioned the portfolio for over the past months. You can never predict the exact day when the unwind begins, only that it will happen once, and most of the time, the leverage reaches stretched levels and catalysts emerge.

The next phase depends on how aggressively leveraged positions are liquidated. This process can intensify into a wash-out scenario, where selling becomes indiscriminate across assets. If such a phase unfolds, it would open the window to start acting on the opportunity list: gradually covering short positions and selectively buying equities that have moved onto attractive valuation levels.

For now, this requires close monitoring on an hourly and daily basis. The unwind has started, its magnitude and duration will define the next major setup.

Nvidia reported earnings last night after the market close, easily surpassing expectations once again.

In Q3, revenues surged to 57.0 billion, up 62% year-on-year and 22% to last quarter, driven by continued demand for data-center GPUs, while margins remained almost unchanged. The company guided confidently for the next quarter, signaling that supply remains the key constraint, not demand.

Markets: Nvidia stock jumped followed by all AI related stocks

My View: during Nvidia’s quarterly earrings call, CEO Jensen Huang delivered the best sales pitch imaginable: “We are sold out.”
This is the perfect psychological trigger. It signals success, dominance, and unstoppable demand. It tells every tech company: order your chips today, before someone else does — or get ready to wait even longer.
Nobody wants to fall behind. Nobody questions whether they truly need it, how they will finance it, or how these investments eventually generate returns.

“We are sold out” - it’s the classic FOMO message: Be smart. Buy now. Don’t lag your competitors.

And it works on first sight.
These three words — “we are sold out” — are enough to restart the entire hype cycle. They revive the chip frenzy and pull investors right back into tech stocks, still showing high valuations, even after the recent smaller correction.

But the real question is now, how long this rush will last.
If the bounce is driven mainly by speculators chasing momentum, the rally could fade quickly. Maybe some institutional investors take this rebound as an opportunity to take profit before the year-end.

Given current market dynamics, this remains my base scenario.

Disclosure: short position Nvidia

Markets are heading into a decisive evening with two events that could define the short-term direction:

Nvidia is going to release the earnings by tonight after the bell. Sales and profits are expected to grow more than 55 percent year-on-year. Investors looking for proof that the explosive AI cycle still has legs in times of discussions that the sector is too expensive and future growth.

The Fed minutes of the October 28-29 FOMC meeting could provide more insight into the depth of the divide that has emerged among policymakers. With official data releases suspended ahead of the October meeting due to the US government shutdown, officials were left to evaluate alternative information that may have added to an emerging sense of caution about further rate cuts. "There's a growing chorus now of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle," Powell told reporters last month.
Expectations for December rate cut have fallen sharply from 100% to around 40%, reflecting a market reassessing the Fed’s willingness to ease while inflation remains sticky.

Markets: try to rebound

• US indices clearly in the green led by tech

• Nvidia: up 2.5%

• US 10-year yield: higher at 4.13%

• Gold: back above USD 4’100/oz after yesterday’s drop

• USD: moves higher

• CHF: drops

• Cryptos: continue their down move with Bitcoin close to USD 90k

• Volatility: drops today - remains clearly above 20 level

My View: both events carry significant short-term importance. The Fed minutes may reinforce the picture of a Fed that is not yet ready to cut rates while inflation remains above target and visibility is limited. Market pricing does not yet fully reflect this shift in tone: the probability of a December rate cut has fallen to around 40 percent. However, the odds have still room to drop and impact the market. Rising uncertainty with sticky inflation, late-cycle risks such as a softening labour market, a weaker consumer, and tightening credit conditions are forcing a rethink.

Nvidia, on the other hand, faces expectations that have climbed to unsustainable heights.
The risk: expectations may simply be too high. The AI leader, meanwhile, could be approaching a turning point.Any sign that the growth curve is flattening in case of slower hyperscaler orders, geopolitics hitting China demand, or cautious forward guidance, could trigger a sharp reaction for the whole market. CEO Jensen Huang is known for his bullish tone. The question now is whether even he can keep feeding the narrative at this altitude. The market is highly sensitive to any sign that the tremendous AI growth wave is approaching a more normalised phase.

The combination of rising macro uncertainty and stretched micro expectations increases the likelihood of a more volatile reaction. Tonight’s releases could shape not only the rest of this week’s trading but potentially the narrative into the end of November.

The market may get clearer direction tonight — but it might not be the one investors hoped for.

The week extends its losing streak as global equities open another day in the red — the fourth consecutive decline. Key technical support levels are being tested across major indices, while sentiment gauges remain stuck in extreme fear territory for several days in a row.

On the macro side, the consumer picture continues to deteriorate: Home Depot cut its earnings outlook, adding to concerns that US household spending — the backbone of the economy — is weakening further. Retail-sensitive sectors are showing early signs of stress.

But the bigger shock came from the tech side:
A major Cloudflare outage took down thousands of websites globally, including services connected to ChatGPT, causing multi-hour disruptions. It was a powerful real-world reminder of how dependent global digital infrastructure has become on a small number of critical providers — and how quickly a single outage can cascade across the system.

Markets: Volatility is creeping higher, liquidity is thinning, and buyers remain on the sidelines.

My View: The current market behaviour increasingly resembles the pre-washout phase. With sentiment deeply depressed and technical levels breaking, the risk of forced selling and margin calls is rising. If the sell-off continues, a sharper capitulation move is possible and rather near. Next technical support levels are key to hold.

The Cloudflare outage also didn’t help the broader narrative. It certainly does not support the bullish AI story or revive optimism. Instead, it highlights how interconnected and fragile the system truly is: when one puzzle piece falls, it can drag the rest with it.

I continue to wait for a true washout — a clearing of leveraged positions that would reset risk and create more attractive entry points. Until then, caution remains the better strategy.

The brief rebound during Friday’s US trading session faded already in the first half of the trading session. After an initial push higher, with tech indices even turning slightly positive versus Thursday’s close, buying interest evaporated quickly.
The market then drifted sideways and lower as investor confidence remained fragile.

Markets:

• Weekend Futures are slightly negative

• Cryptos: down to levels last seen in May with Bitcoin falling towards USD 93k

My View: The rebound losing momentum so quickly is not a positive signal. It suggests that the number of willing buyers is thinning out — a clear indication of weakening underlying demand. This reduces the probability that last week’s bounce will turn into a sustained recovery.

With crypto markets showing renewed weakness after breaking key support levels, the risk is growing that equities will mirror this pattern as we enter the new week.
Sentiment remains fragile, leverage in speculative corners is still high, and the market is vulnerable to further downside pressure if no fresh catalysts appear and the doubts on the AI valuation remain.
Investors will focus on Wednesday’s earnings release of Nvidia. Markets could see a wait and see stance and positive sentiment won’t return by then.

For now, caution remains warranted. A stronger washout or a clearer capitulation wave may still be ahead before a more durable bottom can form providing a selective buying sign.

After months of relentless momentum, markets are finally taking a breather. AI valuations—previously treated as untouchable—are coming under renewed scrutiny. Profit-taking is accelerating just as investors start to question it.

At the same time, the macro backdrop becomes more complicated. With the government shutdown delaying key releases such as CPI and labor market data, investors are effectively flying blind. The Federal Reserve’s latest remarks leaned noticeably hawkish, and the market is beginning to doubt that a December rate cut is still on the table.

The combination of valuation doubts, missing data, and a firmer Fed, creates a fragile environment with sentiment turning quickly.

Markets: global sell-off and risk-off stance

• US Futures again lower led by tech stocks with Nasdaq future -1.3%

• US 10-year yield: dropped not massively to 4.08%

• Gold: sees larger swings now trading above USD 4’100/oz

• USD: slightly down

• CHF: strengthens

• Cryptos: sell-off massively with Bitcoin dropping below USD 95k

• Volatility: accelerates

My View: The long-awaited correction is finally here, and it was overdue.

AI stocks pushed too far in a euphoric environment where no one questioned sustainability, whether the sector can justify its massive capital expenditure with real, scalable earnings.
The narrative focused solely on investment—massive AI Capex—while almost no one asked the key question: How will these billions or trillions translate into earnings? What exactly is the business model?

Now the tide is turning. Everyone tries to get out of the same door at the same time, and liquidity disappears fast.

I would wait before buying the dip.
We haven’t seen the “big selling wave” yet, the kind that produces forced liquidations and margin-call washouts with everything moving in the same direction, down. That moment tends to reset positioning and offer genuine opportunities.

Watch also for political noise. A single Trump comment, just as we’ve seen many times, can suddenly stabilize sentiment or trigger a short-term bounce. But structurally, AI needs to prove profitability, not just Capex excitement.

This correction is healthy. It clears the excess, resets risk appetite, and brings back realism and forcing the gamblers out of the market.
The next good entry point will come, but not before the market flushes out the leverage.

America’s longest-ever government shutdown has officially ended after 43 days. Federal workers are returning to their jobs today. Though it may take days or even weeks for agencies to fully resume normal operations. While this is positive news for travelers ahead of Thanksgiving, the data backlog remains significant. The White House is signaling that October’s CPI and jobs report may never be released, leaving a notable gap in the economic picture.

Markets: Uncertainty weighs on sentiment

• US Futures lower led by tech stocks

• US 10-year yield: climbing above 4.11%

• Gold: moves up towards USD 4’250/oz

• USD: continues to fall

• Cryptos: lower with Bitcoin at USD 102k

• Volatility: starts to accelerate

My View: The end of the shutdown removes a political overhang but does not resolve the core issues. The new funding deal only runs until January 30th. Washington has simply bought itself time.
Investors remain partly blind with key inflation and labour data missing at a moment when sentiment is fragile and late-cycle dynamics are becoming more pronounced.
The absence of crucial data increases uncertainty, and markets will rely more heavily on partial indicators, corporate guidance, and high-frequency surveys.
Not to mention the economic loss created by the longest shutdown in history.

I expect a bumpy market phase with a tilt to the downside as uncertainty stays elevated and the Fed’s reaction function becomes harder to assess.

This morning, SoftBank announced that it has sold its entire stake in chipmaker Nvidia, booking USD 5.8 billion in gains. This move comes to finance other AI ventures as SoftBank runs an overall high debt level.
This move combined with news on negative earnings or weak forward guidance from AI players such as CoreWeave or Nebius is reviving questions about overheated valuations. Even SoftBank’s top executives cautioned publicly that the AI sector might already be in a bubble phase.
Adding to this cautious tone, Tesla’s sales in China dropped significantly, feeding additional concerns to the AI enthusiasm.

Markets: triggered a profit-taking in AI-related stocks

• US markets down with Nasdaq losing 0.8%

• US bond market: closed with Veterans day

• Gold falls back to unchanged level at USD 4’115/oz

• USD: lower

• Cryptos: lower with Bitcoin at USD 103k

• Volatility: no signs of fears - almost unchanged

My View: Is this the moment of a game changer?
As already assumed and mentioned yesterday, the relief rally, driven by optimism around ending the US government shutdown, seems to be only short-lived.
Structural headwinds remain in the near term: a pending court decision on tariffs, record debt levels, and a weakening consumer backbone. The K-shaped economy risks dragging growth lower if the middle and lower income groups face tighter budgets and rising job insecurity.

Followers of my commentary know that I see AI valuations as stretched. The sector is pricing in perfection. Investor mood on platforms like Reddit shows big signs of nervousness, only small corrections triggering already large emotional swings, as seen end of last week.

In such euphoric phases, tops are often made quietly, not with a crash, but with the first cracks in confidence.

It is too early to define a shift in momentum. However the number of negative news around the AI topic and number of statements on the overheated valuation of the AI sector is increasing which could soon lead to an overall change in the sentiment.
The coming days will show if the news around SoftBank’s move marks just a wave of profit-taking, or the start of a broader re-rating of the AI dream.

After weeks of political gridlock, Washington appears to be finally reaching an agreement to end the longest government shutdown in history.
The US Senate took a major step toward re-opening the government after a group of moderate Democrats broke with their party leaders and voted to support a deal.
The agreement would provide short-term funding through the end of January, allowing federal operations, including key data releases from the Labor Department and Bureau of Economic Analysis, to resume.

The deal still requires approval by the House of Representatives and the signature of President Donald Trump before officially ending the shutdown.

Markets: positive reaction globally

• US futures jumped on optimism

• US 10-Yield slightly higher at 4.12%

• Gold price jumped more than 2.5%

• USD: unchanged

• Cryptos: higher with Bitcoin back at USD 106k amid renewed risk appetite

• Volatility: falls with risk-on sentiment

My View: The political noise may fade in the short-term, but the underlying fundamentals remain fragile. Consumer confidence sits near multi-year lows, corporate layoffs are increasing, and debt levels are at record highs — all classic late-cycle indicators.
While the end of the shutdown may fuel a short-term relief rally, markets continue to trade more on hope than hard data. For investors, this moment is less about chasing performance and more about reassessing risk exposure.

On Friday, the University of Michigan’s November survey showed US consumer sentiment plunging to 50.3, its lowest level in over three years and the second-lowest since 1978. The reading marks a 6.2% decline from October and is down nearly 30% year-on-year.
The main driver: worries over the ongoing government shutdown, persistent inflation pressures, and growing job market uncertainty.
Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for 53.0 after October’s 53.6 reflecting deep-seated anxiety among households. Sentiment was last this low in June 2022 as inflation hovered around its highest level in 40 years

Markets: stocks initially fell on the weak consumer data but rebounded in the second half of the session

• US stocks closed almost unchanged

• Yields dropped first and later traded higher again

• Gold back above USD 4’000/oz level

• USD: lower

• Cryptos: followed the equity moves

My View: While markets remain captivated by artificial intelligence and mega-cap tech stories, the real backbone of the US economy, the consumer, is flashing warning signals.
Sentiment has been depressed for months, reflecting a cocktail of inflation fatigue, political uncertainty, and job insecurity.
If households continue to feel squeezed, loan repayment stress and weaker discretionary spending could soon translate into slower growth.
We have seen this dynamic before: China’s post-pandemic experience is a clear reminder of how quickly consumption can stall once confidence erodes.
For now, AI headlines may keep investors distracted, but the underlying story could quickly shift from optimism to caution. That deserves close attention in the weeks ahead.

China’s exports in October 2025 fell by 1.1% year-on-year – a sharp reversal from the 8.3% increase in September. The drop was driven especially by a plunge in shipments to the U.S., which fell by around 25% y/y. In the same period, Chinese imports also slowed markedly, growing only 1.0%, versus 7.4% in the prior month.

Exports of rare-earth elements however rose 9% in October (on a monthly basis) — notwithstanding the broader export slowdown.

Markets: Asian shares down this morning led by yesterday’s US sell-off

• Hang Seng: down 0.9%

• China mainland stock indices: down 0.5%

• China yields slightly down with 10-year yield around 1.75%

• CNY: unchanged

My View: The export contraction shows that China’s external demand cushion is fading. Earlier this year, the country benefited from front-loading ahead of US tariff hikes — that rush is now clearly over.

Nevertheless, Beijing retains significant fiscal capacity and can introduce new stimulus at any time. Domestic investors, returning to the market after heavy pandemic-era losses, are adding a layer of positive momentum and helping to stabilize sentiment.
Despite the near-term weakness, China continues to hold strong structural advantages: it remains an economy with higher growth potential, controls the world’s largest rare-earth resources, is deepening trade ties with Europe and Latin America, and still holds the largest stockpile of US Treasuries.

Any large-scale Treasury selling could trigger a sharp spike in US yields — as briefly seen during the volatile overnight session in April — reminding both markets and the White House how tightly global risks are interconnected. Washington is well aware of the importance of avoiding any trade war escalation with China, knowing that financial stability and diplomatic balance are closely linked.

The short-term slowdown does not change the long-term picture. China’s fiscal capacity and strategic leverage keep it a key player as the second largest economy in the world.
Therefore, the allocation in the ETFMandate portfolio remains substantial, still with the plan to add more exposure in case of a sharp drop.

US-based employers announced 153,074 job cuts in October, sharply up from 54,064 in September, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas. This marks the wirst October for layoff announcements since 2003.
This comes just one day after the ADP employment report showed a better-than-expected gain of 42,000 jobs, marking the first positive month since July.

Some industries are now correcting after the pandemic-era hiring boom, while AI adoption, softening consumer and corporate spending, and rising costs are leading many firms to freeze or reduce hiring

Markets: nervousness persists across markets.

• Global stocks: rally is loosing steam

• Yields almost unchanged

• US dollar: drops

• Gold: back above USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: negative trend continues - Bitcoin falls towards USD 100’000

• Volatility: VIX Index up

My View: We get some labor market data even with the shutdown, the longest one in history. The data is published by private institutions.
The divergence could be the sign of a late-cycle labor market.
While ADP reflects current payroll strength, the Challenger report signals forward-looking caution — companies are preparing for slower growth or weaker demand ahead.
Such mixed signals are typical before a turning point: employment still resilient on paper, yet corporate sentiment turning defensive.

Markets remain on edge, as illustrated by Tuesday’s panic followed by yesterday’s relief rally.
After investors fled from AI-related stocks on warnings of high valuations and sings of a bubble, sentiment quickly reversed — the familiar “buy the dip” reflex returned.
The question now is whether this remains a profitable strategy, or if investors are simply ignoring the growing late-cycle risks.

ADP employment change came in better than expected, with 42k new private-sector jobs added in October (25k expected). This marks the first positive reading since July, suggesting a stabilizing labor market despite recent concerns.

ADP stands for Automatic Data Processing, one of the largest payroll service providers in the United States.
The ADP Job Report is a monthly employment report that estimates how many jobs were added or lost in the private sector in the US. It is based on real payroll data from millions of workers processed by ADP.

Markets: nervousness persists across markets.

• Global stocks stable after yesterday’s sell-off with wider swings

• Yields higher with job data — US 10-year yield at 4.12%

• US dollar: higher

• Gold: 1.3% higher close to USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: sideways after Bitcoin fell two times below USD 100’000

• Volatility: VIX Index sideways today hovering below 20 level

My View: The Fed cut rates at its last meeting, citing weakness in the labor market. Now, the ADP showing renewed job creation. As there is no additional government data available due to the shutdown, the narrative could shift quickly.
If incoming economic data continues to signal a firmer labor market, expectations for a December rate cut may fade, particularly with inflation still clearly running above the Fed’s target.

Volatility remains present and may even increase as macro uncertainty rises.