US stock futures dipped after Palantir shares slid yesterday evening in post-market trading. Despite delivering a quarterly sales beat and lifting its full-year outlook, investors reacted to concerns about the company’s lofty valuation. Markets are finally starting to question the pricing of AI-exposed names.

Markets: profit taking

• Global stocks mostly down

• Yields sideways to with the US 10-year yield slightly below 4.1%

• US dollar: up

• Gold: falls below USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: continue to fall with Bitcoin now at USD 103’000

• Volatility: VIX index jumps towards 20

My View: Surprise, surprise? Not really. When sentiment runs this hot, it only takes one spark for investors to start reconsidering the price they are willing to pay. We are entering the phase where narratives get tested and valuations suddenly matter again.

Timing is always the tricky part in speculative environments. There is nothing wrong with taking profits gradually into strength.
Momentum breaks fast when confidence shifts. Selective hedging or adding tactical short exposure can work, too, although this remains a tool for experienced investors only.

Excess liquidity and enthusiasm can stretch bubbles far longer than logic would suggest.
The question is now: is it the beginning of a shift in the momentum or do investors buy the dip as they did during previous short and small market dips.

President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping concluded a closely watched summit, formally announcing a 1-year truce in the trade and tariff dispute between the world’s two largest economies. The agreement pauses escalating measures that had weighed on global markets in recent months.

Talks centered on US tariffs and China’s export controls on rare earth materials. The deal includes a mutual freeze on additional port fees for 12 months and a temporary suspension of China’s rare earth export restrictions.
Further key points include:

• US tariff rate on certain China-linked goods, including fentanyl-related products, reduced from 20% to 10%, with a pledge from Beijing to curb illicit shipments

• Broad US tariffs on Chinese goods lowered from 57% to 47%

• Trump declared rare-earth concerns “settled”

• US will mediate between Beijing and Nvidia regarding chip export issues

• China to increase US energy purchases, with specific reference to Alaskan oil and gas

• China to resume large-scale soybean buying “immediately”

Markets: profit taking in combination with earings

• Global stocks trading negative

• US yields higher (after Fed policy meeting) with the 10-year yield around 4.1%

• US dollar: stronger

• Gold: regains ground trading around the USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: trading negative

My View: This outcome: relief, but not resolution. As predicted in my earlier comments this week, investors traded the classic playbook: buy the rumor, sell the fact.

A temporary truce reduces tail risk for now and supports risk assets in the short term, yet deeper structural issues remain untouched.

I doubt this represents genuine one-year stability. Geopolitical and economic competition between the US and China runs far beyond tariffs and soybeans. The pause may cool sentiment for a few months, although I expect renewed friction and policy noise as both sides defend strategic priorities.

Commodities stay in the spotlight. Energy, industrial metals, and strategic materials will continue to play a critical role in geopolitical positioning and supply chain security. Volatility will resurface whenever headlines shift from diplomacy back to confrontation.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to announce a 25bps rate cut today — despite operating half blind. With the labour market data missing due to the ongoing US government shutdown, policymakers are making a decision without one of their key reference points.
Recent inflation readings, at around 3%, remain clearly above the Fed’s 2% target, offering little justification for a cut from a purely data-driven perspective.

Markets: US markets higher fueled by hope on rate cut and trade deal

• US Futures trading positive with Nasdaq +0.5% (after strong rally during last days)

• US yields tending sideways with the 10-year yield around 4.0%

• US dollar: stronger today

• Gold: regains ground and back above the USD 4’000/oz level

• Cryptos: trading sideways

My View: I see a weak case for cutting rates at this stage. Latest GDP data indicates a 3.9% growth. Inflation is still well above target. The labor market has some signs of slowing but not deteriorating. With unemployment at 4.3% indicates a labour market close to what the Fed calls “maximum employment”.
The Fed is clearly under political and market pressure to deliver, but that doesn’t mean it should.
If the Fed decides not to cut, markets would likely react sharply. Yet, by cutting now, it risks fueling the existing market bubble, as equity leverage stands at new record highs. There’s no real urgency to lower rates — and doing so without full data could come at a high price later.

The AI ecosystem continues to expand at full speed. The latest example: Nvidia taking a stake in Nokia — a move that highlights how deeply intertwined the global AI network of investments and partnerships has become. At the center stands OpenAI, surrounded by the major players Microsoft, Broadcom, AMD, Google, Meta, and an ever-growing circle of smaller partners and suppliers.

Yesterday, Qualcomm joined the AI race by unveiling a new AI chip for data centers, positioning itself to compete directly with Nvidia, AMD, and Intel. The company hopes to secure a share of the booming demand for AI infrastructure and training capacity — but the question remains: when will it be truly welcomed into the “AI circle”?

Markets: US Tech stocks extended their recent gains - Europe weak

• Qualcomm: jumping more than 20% yesterday - partly giving up gains

• Nokia: jumping 20%

• Nasdaq: new records up almost 2% yesterday and 0.5% today

• Chip sector: on fire by the news

My View: The arrival of a new competitor is rarely a good sign mid-term. Competition tends to push prices down, compress margins, and eventually hurt earnings growth. While investors still celebrate every AI headline, the fundamentals suggest that the risk-reward balance is shifting.

I do not follow the investor crowd here. The ample warning light in the tech sector has switched to red — a correction would not only be healthy but likely inevitable.

Optimism reigns on the trading floor as investors cheer signs of progress in global trade negotiations. After signing several smaller separate trade and mineral agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and a trade framework with Thailand as well as Vietnam over weekend, markets are now focusing on the potential breakthrough between the US and China. President Trump is expected to meet President Xi later this week, fueling hopes that both sides will reach an agreement before the 10 November deadline, when new tariffs are set to take effect. Both sides showed confidence on the ongoing negotiations

Markets: US stocks continued on the Friday rally

• US stocks: new records with Nasdaq up over 1.5%

• China stocks trading positive also on good economic numbers

• US yields bit higher again with the 10-year back above 4%

• Gold: loses ground - falling below USD 4’000/oz intraday

• Cryptos take a pause after weekend gains

My View: This could be a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.”
While markets rally on optimism, the underlying geostrategic tensions between the two nations remain unresolved.Even if a short-term deal is reached, structural differences—technology access, supply-chain control, and national security—will not vanish overnight.

Trump’s decision to unexpectedly announce 10% tariffs on Canada after halting negotiations serves as a reminder of his unpredictable stance on trade.
Investors should therefore stay cautious: the celebratory mood could quickly shift once the deal details emerge or if talks take another turn.

Today’s US inflation data came in higher on a monthly basis — yet still slightly below market expectations. For September, US inflation and core inflation is at 3.0% year-on-year while analysts expected the number at 3.1%.
The mixed outcome offered just enough relief for investors betting on a dovish pivot from the Federal Reserve.

Markets: US stocks jump aim for records - yields lower

• US Futures: positive reaction on the numbers with Nasdaq Future up 0.9%

• US yields lower with the 10-year fell below 4% again

• Gold: jumps on the news while being in a take profit trend (USD 4’120/oz)

• Cryptos up with sings of risk-on

My View: Investors see the numbers as a confirmation for pricing in a rate cut by the Fed, interpreting today’s data that inflation remains contained enough for policy easing.

The market’s reaction shows how sensitive sentiment remains to any sign of monetary relief — with liquidity expectations driving nearly all asset classes at the moment.

However, US stock valuations are priced for perfection. As seen by the latest earning results from Netflix and Tesla, investors are reacting negatively as expectations are sky-high.

Oil returned to the spotlight after President Trump announced fresh sanctions on major Russian oil companies. The move aims to restrict Russian crude sales to India — a key buyer — in an effort to cut financial support for Moscow’s war efforts.

Markets: Oil and energy stocks gain

• WTI Crude oil: surged more than 5%, jumping from USD 58 to over USD 61/barrel

• Energy stocks sector: rally, trading nearly 2% higher in early market actionhe broader oil market remains in a phase of oversupply.

My View: The broader oil market remains in a phase of oversupply with US producers heavily drilling and with the OPEC+ decision to increase production in a period of world economy rather slowing.
However, such geopolitical shocks can trigger sharp short-term moves, especially as investors are currently rather positioned short. A wave of short-covering could now fuel some gains in the near term.

Following last night’s announcement, I added exposure to the oil market in after-hours trading and plan to include a few select energy names with short-term upside potential due to undervaluation.

Disclosure ETFMandate portfolio: long position in Crude Oil and energy sector ETF

Netflix reported its quarterly earnings yesterday after the close. Despite delivering solid subscriber growth, the market focused on weaker-than-expected revenue guidance and signs of slowing momentum in its ad-supported business. Shares dropped around 7% in pre-market trading, setting a cautious tone for the rest of the “Magnificent 7” ahead of their earnings. Tonight Tesla will release its earnings after the market close.

Markets: US Futures trading almost flat

• Netflix: down 7% pre-market

• Tesla: unchanged pre-market

My View: Netflix is the first of the “Magnificent 7” to report, and the initial reaction is clearly negative. The question now is whether this signals broader weakness across the mega-cap tech space or remains an isolated case.
Tesla will report after-hours tonight. Given the market’s current sensitivity to growth and margins, expectations are high. Focus will also be on the robotaxi project, maybe the key driver for sentiment. Any disappointment could lead to further pressure on the group and weigh on overall sentiment.

For now, the tone is cautious: one weak report doesn’t make a trend, but it could remind investors how much perfection is already priced into these names.

Disclosure ETFMandate portfolio: short positions in Tesla and Netflix

The US and Australia signed a landmark agreement yesterday to deepen cooperation on critical and rare-earth minerals, underscoring the strategic importance of securing supply chains outside China. The deal, valued at over USD 8 billion, includes joint projects between the US and Australia to develop mining, refining and processing of critical minerals (including rare earths).

Gold and silver extended their retreat from recent highs as the US dollar strengthened, triggering a broad-based pullback across precious metals after a remarkable rally driven partly by short-term traders and momentum flows. Other metals like platinum, palladium, copper, and lithium have also softened meanwhile oil prices have eased already before.

Markets: broad based price drop in commodities

• Gold: USD 4’225/oz (-3.3%)

• Silver: USD 49.75/oz (-4.9%)

• Platinum: USD 1’548/oz (-5.5%)

• Oil WTI:USD 57.46 (+0.78%)

• US Dollar Index gains 0.4%

• US Bond yields down with the 10-year yield at 3.97%

My View: After such a strong run, a pullback was inevitable. The only question is how deep it goes.

While oil provides a short-term cushion against inflation, the broader resource story is far from over. The medium-term outlook for metals remains constructive, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, structural supply shortages, and persistent industrial demand. As key metals used in production — from copper and lithium to palladium and rare earths — remain elevated

The signed US–Australia deal only reinforces this trend: nations are racing to secure what has become the new economic ammunition — critical resources. This dynamic is unlikely to change anytime soon, as trade tensions between the US and China — the world’s dominant supplier of rare earths — are set to persist.

In short, the current correction is healthy, not a trend reversal. The commodity story remains intact. The global fight for access, control, and processing capacity will keep commodities in focus — and ensure that mining stocks still have room to run.

Inflationary pressure could resurface, especially when compounded by ongoing tariff effects. Inflation data released on Friday, despite the government shutdown, could be a critical measure for markets.

China reported a GDP growth rate of 4.8% year-on-year, broadly in line with expectations but slightly below the government’s 5% target. Growth momentum remains slower than in previous quarters, reflecting impact from tariffs and continued pressure from weak domestic demand and a sluggish property sector.

With the data release, investors are again speculating that Beijing could roll out fresh stimulus measures during the upcoming four-day policy meeting, potentially including targeted support for infrastructure, credit easing, or measures to revive consumer confidence.

Markets: rebounded after last week’s sell-off

• China stocks rallied on the numbers

My View: China as number two economy with a higher growth rate should not be ignored. The economic path, policy moves and diplomatic signals continue to influence global markets. However, expectations should remain realistic. China’s leaders have consistently favored gradual, targeted adjustments over broad, aggressive stimulus.

The by end of this month scheduled Trump–Xi meeting could provide a short-term boost with positive rhetoric or a tariff pause. Yet, failure to reach a deal or renewed tariff threats could quickly dampen market sentiment and trigger another bout of volatility.

Markets are shaken by renewed fears of a brewing credit crisis. What started with the bankruptcies of a two auto-related companies in the US has now rippled through the global financial system.
Memories of the 2023 banking turmoil, marked by the collapse of regional lenders and the rescue of Credit Suisse, are quickly revived.
While the large global banks appear well capitalized and stress tests remain reassuring, markets are increasingly questioning whether these isolated “one-offs” are truly isolated.

In Asia and Europe, shares mirrored the US sell-off. Safe-haven assets like the Swiss franc and gold gained. Volatility spiked, with the VIX moving above the 20-level, signaling a rise in market nervousness.

Markets: global markets in the red

• Global equities sell-off

• Gold with new all-time high in direction to USD 4’400/oz

• Bond yields broadly lower with credit spreads rising - the US 10-year Treasury yield at 3.95%, falling first time below 4% since September 2024

• US dollar falls

• Cryptos see heavy losses

• Volatility sees a spike

My View: The key question: are these small dominoes heavy enough to topple the next one? For now, major banks remain solid, but confidence can shift quickly if headlines multiply.

Financial stress rarely emerges overnight. It builds quietly until one event tips the balance. While current incidents still appear contained, they serve as a reminder of how fragile parts of the credit system remain after years of cheap money.

From an investor’s and market’s perspective, the bigger risk in the short-term may not lie in the banks themselves but in forced liquidations. Highly leveraged funds or investors running “all-in” strategies might now be forced to unwind positions, amplifying volatility across asset classes.

In the ETFMandate portfolio I am “short” in US and European banks.
The positions got established this year during the months March to June. Obviously they do not have a positive performance, but are now kicking in and could pay-off should the dynamics emerge.

Fears about the health of the banking industry are spreading after a string of loan-related shocks in the US. The latest wave began with the bankruptcies of First Brands and Tricolor Holdings, both tied to the auto sector.

Today, shares of regional banks and investment bank Jefferies slumped as more signs of credit stress emerged. The focus quickly shifted to Zions Bancorp, which disclosed a sizable charge due to bad loans to a few borrowers, prompting an independent review.

Then Western Alliance reported potential fraud by one of its borrowers, further unsettling investors, even though the bank reaffirmed its guidance and 2025 outlook.

Analysts warn that while these may look like isolated cases, the clustering of such events is raising broader questions about hidden risks in the lending system, particularly in the private credit space. As one market strategist put it:

“Even if exposures are limited, investors tend to sell first and ask questions later — especially when credit fears rise.”

Markets: the news causing a sell-off and spike in volatility

• Global equities and Futures down

• Gold with new all-time high over USD 4’300/oz

• Bond yields broadly lower

• US dollar falls

• Cryptos see losses

My View: was never the question if, but when we would see a pullback. After the recent rally, it was quite obvious that the day was near. The only question now is whether this will remain a short-lived shakeout — or become the trigger point for a broader correction.

That depends largely on the behavior of speculative capital. In recent months, every small dip has been met with “buy the dip” enthusiasm. But speculators’ cash reserves are getting stretched, and cryptos, often labeled as “safe” during crises, are now losing ground sharply. That reduces margin buffers for leveraged investors and could even trigger forced selling via margin calls. If that spiral starts, it can unwind markets fast and painfully.

It’s also notable that the credit story is back. With rising interest rates, the risk of companies struggling to service debt was always the elephant in the room. The bull market and the AI mania simply pushed it out of focus.

As followers of ETFMandate know, I viewed the recent euphoria, particularly in AI-linked names that rallied on mere investment announcements, with increasing skepticism. At the end of the day, it’s not about what I believe, but what the market believes. Still, when conviction fades, risk must be reduced.

That’s why I’ve cut long positions substantially since May, except commodities as one of my key exposures, and increased short positions over the past two weeks, especially in AI-related and crowded trades.

Tensions between the US and China escalated once again after President Trump threatened a cooking oil embargo in response to Beijing’s refusal to purchase US soybeans. This latest move adds fuel to the already heated trade rhetoric seen in recent weeks, following China’s decision to limit rare earth exports, a critical resource for many US industries.

The tit-for-tat measures mark a clear re-emergence of the trade war narrative that had been dormant for some time. While global trade data had recently shown some improving signs, political tensions are once again clouding the outlook for cross-border supply chains and commodities supply.

Markets: higher volatility - markets remain resilient

• Global equities most trading positive

• Gold with new all-time high over USD 4’200/oz

• Bond yields falling broadly except the long-term yields in the US up to 4.04% from 4.0%

• US dollar is weaker again

• Cryptos: Bitcoin stabilized over USD 110’000

My View: The combination of solid bank earnings and lingering rate-cut optimism keeps markets broadly supported for now. Yet, the reappearance of trade war rhetoric is a reminder of how fragile sentiment remains.

Volatility has been rising since the first tariff threats resurfaced. This warning signal should not be ignored. If volatility remains elevated, quant driven managers like CTA (Commodity Trading Advisor) programs and other risk-budgeted systematic strategies could be forced to quickly unwind leveraged long positions to remain within defined risk limits. Such technical selling could amplify short-term market swings and lead to sharper drop of indices.
Another risk seen end of last week, is one similar the washout in Altcoins. Investors had significant losses in a very short timeframe of minutes. Are investors leveraged, they could be forced to liquidate immediately their equity investments due to margin call.

For the ETFMandate portfolio, I added more short positions in the recent days, at the same time staying invested in defensive positions with long-term investment horizon together with commodities and miners. I remain highly alerted to rising volatility and potential spillover risks from the renewed trade tensions.

The third-quarter earnings season begins this week, traditionally led by the US banking sector. Major players like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs will release their results on Tuesday, followed by Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday.

Markets: investors nervous taking some profit or staying on the sidelines

• Global equities most trading negative

• Gold with new all-time high over night

• Bond yields falling broadly

My View: Overall, it’s a rare sight in recent weeks, investors showing signs of nervousness at these lofty market levels, just as the first earnings reports are about to roll in. After the latest rout over the weekend, they seem to be suddenly caught by renewed uncertainty, shifting from aggressive buyers to a more cautious, wait-and-see stance, even with some profit taking.

These first reports could set the tone for market sentiment. The ongoing US government shutdown is expected to delay key macroeconomic data releases, including this week’s inflation figures, leaving investors without crucial guidance from the Fed’s usual data points.
As a result, corporate earnings and even more important, the forward guidance from management, will take center stage.

This shift in focus could trigger significant market reactions: disappointing numbers or guidance might lead to sharp sell-offs in the stocks or even sector, while stronger-than-expected results could ignite another wave of optimism.
For now, markets are in a wait-and-see mode, but volatility could return quickly once the first big numbers hit the screens.

China returned to the spotlight. This morning, the latest trade data came in well above expectations. ccording to China’s customs authority, exports rose 8.3% year-on-year (est. 6.0%), up from 4.4% the previous month, while imports increased 7.4% YoY (est. 1.5%), accelerating from 1.3% in August.

The strong data, however, was definitely overshadowed by renewed trade tensions late last week. After China announced new limits on rare-earth exports on Thursday, US President Donald Trump responded on Friday evening with plans to impose an additional 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, effective November 1, on top of existing duties.

Over the weekend, Trump shifted tone once again. In a Sunday post on Truth Social, he wrote:

“Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment... The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!”

He added that the November 1 deadline was “an eternity,” though he could advance it if China “takes further actions.”

Markets: after Friday’s sharp sell-off, markets stabilized over the weekend and rebounded on Monday.

• China markets opened lower - Futures rebound during US trading hours

• Gold with new all-time high, over USD 4’100/oz

• Bond yields moving sideways after Fridays drop to 4.03% on the US 10-year

• US dollar tend sideways with increased intraday swings

• Volatility index (VIX) started to ease after the spike on Friday

My View: I already highlighted the TACO trade with the announcement of the the news, “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The cycles are now well known: Each cycle follows the same pattern: bold tariff threats, a wave of market panic, and then a quick rhetorical reversal.

Markets may overreact in the short term in either ways. The question will be whether this marks the start of a new tariff cycle or just another negotiation tactic.
Either way, volatility is back, and investors should prepare rather than ignore it.

Last week’s moves also served as a reminder of how a sharp and lasting sell-off could unfold if sentiment were to truly turn.

The market saw record inflows into equities during the last weeks. A significant share of that money was recorded into technology-focused funds. According to the latest figures from Bank of America, equity funds recorded inflows of USD 26 billion last week alone, while the cumulative inflow into listed equity funds over the past three weeks reached USD 152 billion, the largest three-week inflow ever recorded.

The data also shows that the rally is driven by highly enthusiastic retail investors despite already stretched valuations and a cooling institutional appetite.

Markets: equities remain buoyant with first signs of nervousness

• US indices continue to rise

• Commodities: rally takes a pause after big gains - Gold gaining back the USD 4’000/oz level

• Bond yields moving lower with US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.10%

• US dollar loses ground after dead cat bounce

• Volatility index (VIX) signals calm markets

My View: As highlighted in earlier posts, AI is driving a profound transformation, not only from a technological standpoint but also in investor behaviour.
The collective optimism, rapid reaction, and strong appetite for technology stocks have made retail investors the new market drivers, setting the tone for sentiment and short-term momentum.

However, when markets depend too heavily on sentiment, fragility increases. For me, this is a clear signal of rising risk and the mounting potential for a broader correction.
Should momentum turn, many of these highly leveraged retail portfolios could face forced liquidations, amplifying downside pressure once the crowd starts to exit.

In the ETFMandate portfolio, I continue to ride the commodity rally, maintaining my conviction that a correction in the technology sector could be imminent and may drag broader markets lower.
Momentum can persist longer than many expect. But retail-driven rallies often end as abruptly as they begin once sentiment shifts with a fall-out of new buyers.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak today at 2:30 pm CET, just one day after the publication of the FOMC minutes from the September meeting.
Nothing new by now:
- the Fed is deeply divided over how far and how fast to cut interest rates as the balance of risks has shifted
- growing signs of economic and labor market weakness
- persistent inflation pressures
- overall cautiously dovish tone

Market expectations lean toward more cuts this year.

Markets: continue the rally despite uncertainties

• US indices are trading on record highs

• Gold takes a pause after recent strong move

• Bond yields slightly up with US 10-year Treasury yield at 4.13%

• US dollar moves sideways

• Volatility index (VIX) remains subdued

My View: I do not expect any major announcement in today’s speech. Without the latest jobs data, Powell simply lacks the evidence needed to justify a change in tone or policy stance.

Yet a deeper question is beginning to surface: how independent is the Federal Reserve current environment?
This question is not answered by few independent investors, but by how global markets perceive the Fed’s autonomy amid political pressure and missing economic data.

If that independence were to be called into question, the consequences could be immediate. Investors might respond by selling US Treasuries, pushing yields sharply higher and unsettling broader markets.
In a world already on edge between optimism and uncertainty, even the perception of diminished Fed independence could be enough to spark a wave of volatility.

Gold is shining brighter than ever, trading above USD 4’000 per ounce for the first time in history. The move underscores renewed investor demand for tangible assets amid political gridlock and persistent uncertainty around fiscal policy.
The US government shutdown has entered its eighth day, with no sign of progress in Washington as lawmakers remain deadlocked over spending priorities.

Commodity markets are seeing broad strength: silver, platinum, copper, and palladium are all advancing, the recent weeks mainly driven by speculative trading in combination with fueled supply concerns and expectations of sustained demand from industrial and energy transition sectors.
Mining stocks are among the day’s outperformers, benefiting from the commodity tailwind.

Markets: remain resilient

• US indices are hovering near record highs

• Gold and metals are rising simultaneously

• Bond yields are holding steady

• US dollar strengthened

• Volatility index (VIX) remains subdued

My View: Gold’s breakout above USD 4’000 marks a psychological turning point. Historically, such milestones often coincide with a broader shift in sentiment, from denial to acceptance that inflation and fiscal imbalances are here to stay. While AI and tech narratives continue to dominate equity headlines, the rally in real assets tells a parallel story: one of investors quietly hedging against long-term instability.

The combination of record equity prices, a stalled government, and surging gold is unusual, and not sustainable in the long run. Something will have to give.
Either growth catches up with valuations, or markets will face a reality check once fiscal and monetary limits are tested or in case earnings will disappoint. This could lead to a sharp shift in investor sentiment.

For now, ETFMandate portfolio is well positioned in the commodity sector with investments in global, gold and rare earth miners as well as direct exposure to commodities like gold, silver, copper and platinum.

After such a strong run, some profit taking could make sense should the up-trend stall.

In Japan, Sanae Takaichi won the Liberal Democratic Party’s leadership election last weekend, positioning her to become the country’s first female prime minister.
Markets reacted swiftly and positively, buoyed by expectations of renewed fiscal stimulus and a weaker yen supporting exporters.

In Europe, meanwhile, France is once again facing political turbulence. Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu abruptly resigned on Monday, less than a month into his term and only 14 hours after presenting his cabinet. President Macron has given him until Wednesday to form a new cabinet, underscoring the fragility of France’s political landscape.

Markets: opposite reactions

• Japan: equities surged around 5 %, led by export-oriented stocks, while bond yields climbed and the yen weakened further as investors priced in a more expansionary fiscal policy.

• France: The CAC 40 index fell nearly 2 %, and French bond yields moved higher, reflecting rising political risk and the addition of a risk premium to sovereign debt.

My View: With limited economic data available, partly due to the US government shutdown, and the earnings season yet to begin, political developments have taken center stage in driving short-term market sentiment.
Typically, politics act only as temporary market movers. Yet in the current vacuum of hard data, they have become the dominant narrative.

In Japan, expectations of a large fiscal push could clash with already elevated public debt levels, potentially putting upward pressure on borrowing costs. A weaker yen may provide support to exporters, but given the market’s rally to record highs, I prefer to stay cautious and refrain from new active positions in the region for now.

In France and across Europe more broadly, the challenges run deeper. The continent faces a confluence of political, economic, and market headwinds. As discussed in my blog article “Europe – The Struggling Candidate”, I see little room for meaningful upside and expect the negative momentum to persist — slowly but steadily.
Within Europe, I maintain a selective approach, focusing on valuation discipline and sustainable dividend yields rather than broad market exposure.

The US government enters its second day of shutdown with a deepening political gridlock. Prediction markets currently see the shutdown lasting nearly two weeks, broadly in line with history. Bank of America data shows the average government shutdown since 1990 has run its course in about 14 days. The S&P 500, meanwhile, has historically gained about 1% in the week before and after such episodes

Yesterday, despite the shutdown released ADP private payroll report showed a decline of 32’000 jobs versus expectations for a 45’000 gain. Today, markets face the risk of a data blackout if the shutdown persists. Key reports from the Bureau of Labor Statistics may not be released on schedule. That would leave the Federal Reserve “flying blind” just as inflation and labor market signals are diverging.

Markets: shrugging of all negative news across the globe

• Global equity indices trading all in the green

• US Bond yields slightly up after yesterday's drop with the 10-year yield at 4.12%

• US dollar tending sideways

• Gold prive moves below the USD 3’900/oz level

• Cryptos join the risk-on mode with Bitcoin price back close to 120’000 level.

My View:

Markets seem turbocharged by FOMO (“Fear Of Missing Out”) trading on autopilot, dismissing the shutdown, shrugging off weaker jobs data, and continuing their march higher. This underscores that markets rarely see shutdowns as more than short-term noise. History supports this resilience: shutdowns are rarely market-moving events.

The rosy narrative dominates, despite economic data shows some reddish flags. Much of the future success is already priced in today. Political dysfunction and global turmoil are treated as background noise.

This detachment can last longer than many expect, but when momentum finally meets an unwelcome surprise, the adjustment could be sharp. For now, the shutdown is little more than a headline, and the market remains turbocharged.