20.10.25 - China growth and stimulus hopes

China reported a GDP growth rate of 4.8% year-on-year, broadly in line with expectations but slightly below the government’s 5% target. Growth momentum remains slower than in previous quarters, reflecting impact from tariffs and continued pressure from weak domestic demand and a sluggish property sector.

With the data release, investors are again speculating that Beijing could roll out fresh stimulus measures during the upcoming four-day policy meeting, potentially including targeted support for infrastructure, credit easing, or measures to revive consumer confidence.

Markets: rebounded after last week’s sell-off

• China stocks rallied on the numbers

My View: China as number two economy with a higher growth rate should not be ignored. The economic path, policy moves and diplomatic signals continue to influence global markets. However, expectations should remain realistic. China’s leaders have consistently favored gradual, targeted adjustments over broad, aggressive stimulus.

The by end of this month scheduled Trump–Xi meeting could provide a short-term boost with positive rhetoric or a tariff pause. Yet, failure to reach a deal or renewed tariff threats could quickly dampen market sentiment and trigger another bout of volatility.

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