21.10.25 - Focus on commodities
The US and Australia signed a landmark agreement yesterday to deepen cooperation on critical and rare-earth minerals, underscoring the strategic importance of securing supply chains outside China. The deal, valued at over USD 8 billion, includes joint projects between the US and Australia to develop mining, refining and processing of critical minerals (including rare earths).
Gold and silver extended their retreat from recent highs as the US dollar strengthened, triggering a broad-based pullback across precious metals after a remarkable rally driven partly by short-term traders and momentum flows. Other metals like platinum, palladium, copper, and lithium have also softened meanwhile oil prices have eased already before.
Markets: broad based price drop in commodities
Gold: USD 4’225/oz (-3.3%)
Silver: USD 49.75/oz (-4.9%)
Platinum: USD 1’548/oz (-5.5%)
Oil WTI:USD 57.46 (+0.78%)
US Dollar Index gains 0.4%
US Bond yields down with the 10-year yield at 3.97%
My View: After such a strong run, a pullback was inevitable. The only question is how deep it goes.
While oil provides a short-term cushion against inflation, the broader resource story is far from over. The medium-term outlook for metals remains constructive, supported by geopolitical uncertainty, structural supply shortages, and persistent industrial demand. As key metals used in production — from copper and lithium to palladium and rare earths — remain elevated
The signed US–Australia deal only reinforces this trend: nations are racing to secure what has become the new economic ammunition — critical resources. This dynamic is unlikely to change anytime soon, as trade tensions between the US and China — the world’s dominant supplier of rare earths — are set to persist.
In short, the current correction is healthy, not a trend reversal. The commodity story remains intact. The global fight for access, control, and processing capacity will keep commodities in focus — and ensure that mining stocks still have room to run.
Inflationary pressure could resurface, especially when compounded by ongoing tariff effects. Inflation data released on Friday, despite the government shutdown, could be a critical measure for markets.
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