The US economy contracted for the first time in three years. In the first three months of 2025, the GDP falls 0.3% in Q1 2025 amid policy uncertainty weighed on businesses. Analysts expected a growth rate of 0.4%.

Markets: US Futures down with Nasdaq Futures down 2%, US 10-year yield is higher, US dollar down, gold price up

My view: Markets could see a rough trading day after this set of data. As I highlighted during the recent weeks already, the recession scenario becomes more realistic as Q1 already saw a surprising contraction. This could be a turning point after the recent risk on sentiment.

My portfolio allocation is already positioned for such a scenario, which is why I am not making any adjustments at this stage.

The Eurozone economy grew by a stronger-than-expected 0.4% in the first quarter 2025. Economists polled had forecast a 0.2% expansion. Figures published earlier this morning the GDP of Europe’s largest economy, Germany, grew 0.2% over the same period while French GDP added 0.1%. Southern European and smaller economies outperformed.

Alongside the stronger-than-expected economic growth data, Q1 corporate earnings have been largely solid, with several companies even delivering upside surprises. However, forward guidance often reflects elevated uncertainty amid rising macroeconomic and geopolitical risks.

Markets: Equity indices in Europe see another positive day, gold with some profit taking and prices falling below USD 3’300, oil fell below USD 60 (WTI), US dollar and cryptos trading sideways while interest rates are lower.

My view: It is possible that Q1 was supported by front-loaded orders executed ahead of looming tariff hikes. While these backward-looking figures paint a seemingly strong picture, the outlook appears far less reassuring. Leading indicators increasingly signal a potential contraction, and corporate guidance is often marked by caution and uncertainty.

Equity markets continue to surprise me. I do not share the current risk-on sentiment.

Cargo shipments from China to the US have plummeted dramatically since the Trump administration raised tariffs to 145% in early April. Americans have not yet felt the full impact of this sharp reduction in goods from one of the country’s largest trading partners.

Markets: During recent days, major equity indices are about to recover from recent sell-off, US 10-year yield dropped to almost 4.2%, gold price is again above USD 3’300, Cryptos slightly gave up some of the recent gains together with the US dollar.

My view: 60% slump in shipping. Reading such a headline and seeing this number, some red lights start flashing.
Indications from the supply chain and freight markets should be taken seriously. They often signal shifts in the global economy long before financial markets react.

I bet very few of today’s financial influencers have truly experienced a situation like this firsthand, a drastic supply chain shock. I can still picture it vividly from 2008.
At the time, I had the opportunity to work in Singapore on a short-term development assignment for one of the major Swiss banks. It was late 2008, right in the middle of the financial crisis, shortly after the collapse of Lehman Brothers.

Living and working in Singapore, I initially observed huge freight ships, fully loaded with containers, steadily heading toward Europe. But by December, the scene had changed dramatically: Singapore was suddenly empty of many expats, and only a handful of container ships remained, most of them looking eerily empty.
Having never experienced such an economic shock in real life before, nevertheless, I remained somewhat optimistic about the global economy and financial markets back then.
Looking back now, I understand the true significance of container ships no longer sailing, or doing so half-empty.

Today, financial markets are not properly pricing in such a scenario, even though the data clearly indicates it could be happening again. That is why I simply cannot share the current wave of optimism or the prevailing “risk-on” attitude in today’s trading environment.

Tariffs remain a major topic. Rumors of breakthroughs have been denied, and trade tensions are already impacting some supply chains. Early indicators show a marked slowdown in shipments from China to the US. Some retailers have issued warnings that this could lead to shortages of goods. Meanwhile, several factories in China have halted production and sent workers home as the effects of US tariffs take hold. In response, China has announced additional economic support measures and is planning further aid for companies struggling with the external shock.

On the corporate front, this week marks the busiest stretch of the earnings season. Four of the so-called "Magnificent Seven", Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta, along with many other major firms, are scheduled to release their quarterly reports.

Markets: Nasdaq Futures slightly down, gold fell below USD 3’300, US dollar is consolidating after recent losses, US interest rates trading sideways with the 10-year yield between 4.25 to 4.3%, European and Asian indices mostly higher. Cryptos reflect risk on stance with prices increasing.

My view: Investor sentiment has shifted to a risk-on stance, pushing markets higher over the past few days. However, the upside appears limited, with risks still skewed to the downside in my view. Supply chains are already feeling the impact, and uncertainties for corporates persist, as current tariff suspensions are only in place until the end of July, with no trade deal yet in sight.

Tariffs are likely to remain, as President Trump appears determined to generate additional revenue. His preference for high tariffs constrains potential market gains, as elevated tariffs are expected to slow global growth and drive up prices, ultimately weighing on consumer demand.

The tech rally continues following a series of earnings reports. After the market closed yesterday, Google reported first-quarter results, with earnings reaching USD 34.5 billion, up 46% year-over-year. A significant contributor to this surge was USD 11.2 billion in "other income," representing a 293% increase from the prior year. This figure was notably driven by USD 8 billion in unrealized gains from the company’s investment in a private company.

The previous evening, Texas Instruments and ServiceNow also fueled optimism in the tech sector with solid earnings and upbeat commentary. Their outlooks offered no indication of weakening demand.

Markets: Nasdaq back in the leading, up three consecutive days, closing 2.8% higher last night and up 0.5% in the futures trading this morning. Interest rates, gold and the US dollar, all are taking a breather from their recent trends.

My view: Individual corporate earnings continue to be the primary driver of market gains. However, I remain doubtful that this rally has much further to run, unless we see unexpectedly positive economic data or real progress in trade negotiations that could lead to a preliminary agreement. The news flow on this front remains inconsistent: while US officials frequently reference ongoing talks with China, Beijing denies any substantial engagement.
Meanwhile, this week has been relatively quiet in terms of economic releases. Later today, the consumer sentiment index may shed some light on the stability of consumer spending and broader demand trends.

Tensions between Donald Trump and the US central bank ease. Donald Trump said that he has no plans to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Before US President Donald Trump called Powell “Mr. Too Late” and “a major loser” for not cutting interest rates.

Markets: Major Equity indices in green across the globe. Bitcoin saw a rally from USD 83’ to almost 95’000 within two days, gold is taking hit with profit taking, US 10-year yield back below 4.35%, while US dollar stabilizes after recent drop.

My view: At this point, buying equities feels more like a bet on hope and speculation than a decision grounded in fundamentals. With the latest correction, some stock prices may appear cheap now, but given the elevated valuations we have recently seen at market tops, there is still ample room for downside, especially in case a recession materializes, tariff issues remain unsolved, or new disruptive factors emerge.

The latest leading indicators published this morning for Europe suggest a less optimistic economic outlook. Until now, the service sector has been relatively resilient, but the most recent April PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) points to a contraction. ahead. Later today, we will see the US figures.

At the same time, I keep a focus on the earnings season which is gaining momentum as more companies report. However, the Q1 earnings are becoming less relevant. What matters more now is the forward guidance. Uncertainties started by end of the first quarter. The significant tariff disruptions only began in early Q2.

The market patterns reminds me on the years of 2001 after the burst of the IT bubble. Markets tried to rebound each time after a selloff. However, the rebound did not materialize as it was not sustainable.
Given the mounting uncertainties and the lack of a finalized tariff agreements, I have strong doubts about the sustainability of this rally. It appears more like a short-term bounce rather than the beginning of a durable upward trend.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for allegedly keeping interest rates too high.
Meanwhile, investors still wait and are missing meaningful progress in the ongoing tariff negotiations.

Markets: US stocks opened sharply lower with the Nasdaq losing more than 2% in the first trading hour. Interest rates down from 4.4% to 4.35% intraday, US dollar continues to drop while gold is trading first time above USD 3’400.

My view: Trump’s new focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell comes after Powell’s stark warning on the potential effects of tariffs on the economy.

Global equity markets remain highly sensitive to tariff-related developments.
Shifting headlines and evolving narratives continue to fuel heightened volatility and sharp market swings.

Given these dynamics, I am maintaining my current positioning, anticipating greater downside potential ahead.

As fully anticipated by markets, the European Central Bank (ECB) made another 25 basis points interest rate cut today, lowering the key rate to 2.25%.
At the same time the ECB warns of a deteriorated growth outlook on trade tensions.

Already yesterday evening, Fed chairman Jerome Powell warned of a challenging scenario.

Markets: After yesterday’s sell-off in the US, European stock indices down around 0.5%, the Euro trading lower with interest rates moving lower, gold slightly lower after yesterday’s record high with the price remain well above USD 3’300.

My view: The seventh consecutive interest rate cut by the ECB had no immediate market impact, as it was fully anticipated. With inflation showing signs of stabilization, the central bank was able to proceed confidently with this move. Attention now shifts to the upcoming press conference and any forward guidance that may be offered.

Central banks continue to signal their readiness to act in the event of market turbulence. However, last week’s rapid sell-off in US Treasuries underscores how quickly sentiment can shift. As trade tensions persist, central banks remain on high alert.

The Federal Reserve now finds itself in a similarly delicate position to that of the ECB in recent months. Persistent inflation is keeping the Fed from cutting rates, despite mounting signs of a slowing economy that would otherwise warrant more accommodative policy.

This morning, China reported a strong set of data and surprising strength. China’s economy grew by 5.4% in the first quarter of 2025, higher than the 5.1% growth expected.
In March, the industrial output surged 7.7% from a year earlier, higher than median estimates of 5.8%. The country’s retail sales rise 5.9% on an annual level in the same period.

In the meanwhile China signaled to be open for talks. Before though, they want to see a number of steps from President Donal Trump’s administration before it will agree to trade talks, including showing more respect. Before, China stopped the export of rare earths and today, Hong Kong government announced that Hong Kong Post will immediately suspend accepting packages for delivery to the US.

Markets: Asian markets traded mostly lower this morning.

My view: China's latest production and consumption figures show surprising momentum, even ahead of this month’s tariff tensions. However, despite the strong data, concerns over the looming trade barriers weighed on investor sentiment, sending Asian stock markets lower this morning, led by the tech stocks after Nvidia’s and ASML disappointing news.

For me, the uptick in consumption looks particularly encouraging, as it has lagged since the pandemic. If this rebound proves to be sustainable, it could make China’s economy more resilient to tariff-related shocks, especially in contrast to the US, where consumer sentiment has already fallen to historic lows.

Although I maintain a positive outlook on China’s stock market, I took some profit before the financial market before the recent market turmoil began. I still hold a significant allocation, but currently holding off increasing exposure as risks of further setbacks remain elevated, particularly if the US economy slides into a recession.

After market close on Tuesday, Nvidia said that it will take a quarterly charge of about USD 5.5 billion tied to exporting H20 graphic processing units to China and other destinations. The US government said it would require licenses for exports to China of its H2O artificial intelligence chips. This chip is one of Nvidia’s most popular.

During President Biden’s administration, the US restricted AI chip exports in 2022 and the updated the rules the following year to prevent the sale of more advanced AI chips.

Markets: Nvidia tumbles more than 5% in extended trading, dragging the Nasdaq Future down more than 1%.

My view: This is a sign, that Nvidia’s growth story could be slowed by increasing export restrictions on its chips. The chips could be used to create supercomputers for military uses. Why some restrictions in current environment of global tensions could make sense.

However, Nvidia’s disclosure could hit the semiconductor sector and overall market in its current vulnerable conditions.
I therefore expect more downside from here, why remaining short positioned in this specific sector and for tech stocks.

The latest changes in US tariffs were announced Sunday evening in a somewhat chaotic manner. After certain number of statements it was then clear that the US has decided to temporarily suspend tariffs on electronic goods such as smartphones, computers, and semiconductors. It is a temporary exempt from the reciprocal tariffs, including the baseline 10% rate on all countries. This exemption applies to the baseline 10% reciprocal tariff imposed on all countries — with the notable exception of China. Goods from China in these categories will continue to face a 20% tariff. President Donald Trump stated that these goods will soon be placed in a separate “tariff bucket,” with further details expected shortly.

US, weak economic signals:
US consumer sentiment in April dropped further, hitting its lowest level since June 2022 and marking the second-lowest reading in the survey’s history, which dates back to 1952. At the same time, inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, a level not seen since November 1981.

China’s Export Surge:
In China, economic indicators were also mixed. Exports jumped 12.4% year-over-year in March, providing a timely boost to the economy ahead of the anticipated tariff hikes. However, imports declined by 4.3% year-over-year during the same period.

Markets: Global stock markets extended their recovery, regaining more of the recent lossesUS dollar continued to decline, gold hold more steady above USD 3’200, interest rates moved lower.

My view: The latest tariff news provided a boost to equities, prompting investors to increase exposure after the recent slump. According to analyses, private and retail investors were the once heavily buying. However, markets appear to be overlooking the fact that the tariff relief is only a temporary pause, similar to the reciprocal tariff measures. New tariffs, including on pharmaceuticals, could be introduced at any time.

Given these unresolved uncertainties, I am not adding significant exposure at this stage. I expect markets may give back some of the recent gains as clarity remains limited and fears of a recession could get more room.

While tariffs have dominated the headlines lately, it's worth remembering that earnings season kicks off today. Among the first to report are major financial institutions, including JPMorgan, BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Bank of New York Mellon.

Markets: US bank stocks marked a strong 2024, however, fell from their recent highs with trade tensions.

My view: While Q1 figures will be closely watched, forward-looking guidance may be even more critical, offering early insight into corporate health and investor sentiment in a market already rattled by escalating trade tensions.

In the US, outstanding loan payments are on the rise. Combined with trade uncertainty, higher interest rates, and rising consumer prices, this trend has the potential to escalate into a more serious issue. Given these headwinds, I am staying on the sidelines when it comes to bank stocks.

After the US imposed a steep 145% tariff on Chinese imports yesterday, China has responded by increasing its own tariffs on US goods to 125%, up from the previous 84%. The tit-for-tat escalation underscores mounting trade tensions between the two largest economies.

Markets: Globally stock indices turning red, gold above 3’200 for the first time, US dollar slumps with dollar index down more than 1.5%, US interest rates hovering around 4.4% level. Cryptos trading stable

My view:

Compared to the initial tariff announcements, markets no longer react with the same intensity. However, each new development in this tariff battle seems to nudge stock indices further into negative territory, setting off steady downward trends.

This ongoing back-and-forth between the world’s two largest economies feels like a playground contest, two kids seeing who can say the bigger number. I am just waiting for one of them to shout “infinity… infinity+1…”

My view remains unchanged, the US may actually be more dependent on China than the other way around. Regardless of who has the upper hand, this trade war is clearly hurting the global economy. It weighs on sentiment and clouds the short- and mid-term outlook with uncertainty. To make matters worse, the weak US dollar makes imports even more expensive, adding further pressure to already sticky inflation. Not a good sign for upcoming inflation figures and the consumer sentiment.

The Nikkei index in Japan and European indices surged this morning, following the strong rally in the US yesterday.

The European Union has decided to postpone countermeasures to US tariffs for 90 days.

In the US, inflation data (CPI) released this afternoon came in surprisingly lower than expected. Prices rose by 0.1% in March, down from 0.2% last month (forecasted 0.3%). On a yearly basis, inflation stands at 2.8%, down from 3.1% (forecasted 3.0%).

Markets:

My view: Give up gains and are trading negative in the US. Oil price slumps. US interest rates are going up, even with lower CPI data. Gold back over USD 3’100/oz while US dollar is losing strongly.

As I already mentioned in my last post shortly after midnight, I do not believe that this rally will last as buying stocks after such a day, there is a small chance to materialize. Parallels are being drawn to the biggest intraday rally in 2001, when Nasdaq gained over 14%. Following that, the index lost more than 50%, and it took six years to return to break-even.

At the moment, having access to a trading platform with pre-market capabilities is valuable. Currently the moves in the pre- and after-market trading hours are significant, offering opportunities.

As a result, I closed my short volatility position this morning with profit and have since opened a long volatility position by purchasing an ETF. Additionally, with the rally reaching extreme levels, I have initiated new short positions on the Nasdaq and in semiconductors.

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Yesterday, US markets posted one of the strongest intraday gains in history, with the Nasdaq surging over 12%, its biggest rally since 2001 and the second-best day on record. The sharp rebound came after US President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on some tariffs, sparking a wave of investor optimism and aggressive short-covering across sectors.

Markets: Nasdaq Index gained more than 12%, Dow Jones Index almost 8% while S&P 500 Index jumped 9.5%. Together with the stock markets, cryptos and commodities rallied, interest rates took a breather with 10-year yields back to 4.35% after hitting briefly 4.5% intraday, while the US dollar gained back some ground. Gold was able to defend its intraday increase of 3%.

My view: We have just witnessed one of the most volatile short-term periods in market history, marked by extreme swings and, remarkably, driven largely by the actions and statements of a single individual. The sheer scale of market impact from such announcements is unprecedented and gives more than just a hint of insider dynamics at play.

Many institutions were caught off guard, myself included, at least to some extent. In response, I made gradual adjustments to the portfolio starting this week. Just a bit ahead of yesterday’s major announcement, I closed out the long volatility position and rotated directly into a short volatility ETF, positioning for a potential cooldown in market turbulence after volatility had reached extreme levels. It was just the right timing.

Markets are celebrating, but many seem to overlook that the tariffs have not been removed, only paused for 90 days. The uncertainty remains high, particularly for companies that have already started adjusting their strategies in response to the initial tariffs.

One pressing question: what happens to goods imported yesterday that were technically subject to the new reciprocal tariffs? There is still no clear guidance, highlighting just how chaotic and unpredictable this environment has become.

Based on this remaining high uncertainties and unpredictability, I am not sure how sustainable this super-rally really is. Should volatility levels begin to normalize, there is a stronger chance I will pivot back to a long volatility position. The underlying uncertainty has not disappeared, it might simply be delayed.

The trade battle between the world’s two largest economies, China and the United States, has entered a new and more aggressive phase. In a bold show of force, China announced today that it will impose 84% tariffs on US imports. This follows US President Donald Trump’s decision yesterday to increase tariffs by 50%, bringing total duties on Chinese goods to 104%.

Trump’s so-called "reciprocal tariffs" took effect today, targeting around 60 trading partners with whom the US runs trade surpluses. This follows the implementation of a baseline 10% tariff on most US trading partners, which came into force on Saturday.

In response, China has pledged to continue taking “resolute and forceful” countermeasures. As of now, there has been no official response from U.S. political leaders regarding China’s latest move.

Adding to market jitters, there was a fire sale of long-term US Treasuries overnight, a development that could signal further financial instability if tensions escalate.

Meanwhile, in a somewhat under-the-radar move, the European Commission announced countermeasures targeting EUR 21 billion worth of US imports. These duties are expected to be collected starting April 15. The EU emphasized its strong preference for a "balanced and mutually beneficial negotiated outcome" in its official statement.

In Germany, coalition talks have concluded with an agreement to form a new government.

Markets: Chinese equity markets saw an increase last night, European markets with another bad day deep in the red, US indices with a try of stabilization, US long-term interest rates with a strong up move from 4.2% to 4.5% within few hours, gold up +3%, US dollar and oil weak, metals in plus. Cryptos also with signs of stabilization after the dip earlier today.

My view: I am not surprised by China’s latest move. The country has the strength and strategic positioning to play this game. With ample foreign exchange reserves, China has the ability to stabilize its own markets. Today’s positive market performance suggests that government-backed equity purchases may have taken place to restore investor confidence.

China remains the second-largest holder of US Treasuries, with approximately USD 760 billion. What caught my attention is that the origin of last night’s fire sale in long-term Treasuries hasn’t been clearly identified. To me, this looks like a calculated signal from Beijing, designed to rattle global markets and remind the US of its financial interdependence with China. If China would aggressively liquidate its Treasury holdings, it could send US interest rates soaring, causing significant economic disruption.

Interestingly, we’ve also seen a pause in the recent downtrend of some key commodities today. This could be an early sign that the fight for strategic resources is heating up, a theme I have been watching closely.

In light of these developments, I have taken some tactical positions in the ETFMandate portfolio today. As always, all Premium Members received immediate updates on these investment decisions earlier today.

Markets are taking a breather after the wild ride during the last days. Tariffs remain the driving topic. The Chinese government has expressed a firm stance, stating it will "fight to the end" in the face of escalating trade tensions. The EU is trying to find a deal and proposed a "zero-for-zero" tariff agreement to eliminate tariffs on industrial goods. US President Trump has stated that for the EU, to receive relief from these tariffs, it must commit to purchasing USD 350 billion worth of American energy.

Markets: With US coming back to market today, the rebound started to gain some traction. The crypto rebound stalls, US dollar is loosing ground, Swiss franc is getting stronger, gold trading above USD 3’000/oz

My view: After making small adjustments to the portfolio allocation yesterday, I am now taking a wait-and-see approach before making any further changes. The situation remains uncertain until we gain a clearer understanding of the impact of tariffs on both the US and global economies. The probability of a recession is rising. JP Morgan currently addressed a 60% chance of recession in the US.

In the short term, it is crucial to observe how things unfold over the next few days, not just in terms of news flow but also investor behavior and technical indicators. Drawing from my professional experience, I have a solid understanding of institutional investment processes and timelines. Should they decide to adjust the positions of the portfolios of their clients, this is going to happen during the next days and will impact the markets as high volume is traded.

It is worth noting that institutions had previously advised twice their clients to buy the dip before the recent sharp sell-off. As a result, their current allocation may now be too high for the current environment of uncertainty and elevated volatility.

What concerns me, though, is the growing consensus. Many investors may use the recent rebound as an opportunity to offload positions and therefore we may be heading into a new downward leg in the market.

Since the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US president Donald Trump last Wednesday, financial markets have experienced their most significant sell-off since the pandemic-induced crash in 2020. Major indices have dropped by around 5% or more.

The Nasdaq has officially entered bear market territory, falling over 20% from its recent peak. Meanwhile, the sentiment remains deeply negative with the Fear and Greed Index registering its sixth consecutive week in “Extreme Fear” zone.

Markets (during Weekend): Nasdaq -1.8%, Dax -1.7%, Hang Seng -1.6%, cryptos with heavy losses, Bitcoin down 5%.

My view: As mentioned on Friday, I continue to see room for further downside. The process of risk unwinding by institutional investors could be just at the beginning. The recent spike in volatility is forcing them to reduce risk exposure in their portfolios in order to manage overall portfolio risk.

That said, the market could experience a bounce, should any news emerge that improves sentiment or supports a more positive outlook. Such a rebound however, could be used for unloading risks.

I am closely monitoring both market movements and the news flow. I do not see parallels to the pandemic-driven crisis. Back then, we faced a sudden, short-term shock that impacted on the global economy briefly, followed by swift and coordinated support from central banks and governments.
Today, the situation is different. The escalating trading war has the potential to spiral into a prolonged drag on global growth, ultimately increasing the risk of a broader recession.

During the pandemic, I invested all cash in three steps, one a bit too early, one near the bottom and one shortly after the initial rebound. This time is different though. Given how this current setup looks to me, I am avoiding reactive moves or speculative chases. I prefer to wait for clear and convincing signals before increasing exposure.
Based on the speech from Fed chairman Jerome Powell on Friday, there is not much room for the Fed to lower interest rates to calm down markets. “We are here to tell the truth. The truth is tariffs are pushing prices up and significantly slowing economy:”

The portfolio has remained relatively stable through the current market turmoil, so I see no need to make any significant adjustments at this stage.