No, it is not November yet. However, on financial markets it feels like everything is on sale.
Indices were not able to recover from yesterday’s sell-off yet when China announced tariffs on all US goods with 34%. In addition, the Ministry of Commerce announced new sanctions. It added 11 companies from the US to its unreliable entity list and placed 16 US-based entities on the export control list.

Furthermore, President Trump said that tariffs on the Chip and Pharma sector will be announced soon. So far they were excluded from the latest round of tariff announcements.

Markets: European indices currently down between 4-5%, US Futures down around 3%, oil loses another 6%, US 10-year Treasury below 4% (3.9%), gold flat, cryptos turning red after trying to recover.

My view: Once feared by all and dismissed by many, the trade war is now a reality. Its impact on markets is about to intensify.

My first strategy, to navigate the portfolio through the storm, with a focus on limiting the downside which is currently working quite well. Even with some heavy losses on certain positions, the losses are covered from the side of short positions keeping the portfolio in balance for the time being.

And the key question now is, what is the next news and catalyst poised to impact the markets?

And second, is it the moment to buy the dip?

At this stage, this still does not look like a buying opportunity to me. Fear is clearly widespread and intensifying, the sentiment has clearly shifted into panic mode. A sign of full capitulation could then be a first step back into adding new risk exposure. However, if the recession scenario is becoming real, there is more room for downside!

Big announcement of the “liberation day” tonight by US president Donald Trump, showing a big board to the audience with tariff figures charged to listed countries starting by tomorrow.

Markets: Nasdaq lost almost 2.5% in the after-hours trading, down more than 3% from its closing level. Dax future down 2.5%, Nikkei down 2.3%, US Small Caps down 4%, cryptos lose their bigger gains today trading in minus now, no big moves in currencies yet, gold with small gains.

My view: I am not surprised by the initial market reaction; what’s more striking is the positive and optimistic stance investors have taken, buying stocks ahead of such a major event with potentially significant market implications.

It was the right decision to refrain from following the recent "buy the dip" trend and instead maintain a cautious portfolio allocation, given the broader and ongoing uncertainties.

Today, US President Donald Trump will announce new tariffs. He is calling it “Liberation Day,” saying it is a big move to protect American jobs and businesses.
These new tariffs are reciprocal, which means the US will now charge other countries the same taxes they charge American products. For example, if Europe taxes American-made goods at 20%, the US will now tax European goods at 20% too.
A 25% tax on all imported cars and car parts, was already announced and will start tomorrow.

Markets: After the rebound yesterday, stock markets continue to lose ground today, interest rates down.

My view: I was surprised by the recent rebound. Overall, the stock market seems a bit too relaxed about the tariff announcement. The big question remains: how significant will the tariffs be, and how will other countries respond?

For now, I am staying on the sidelines with new investments until there is more clarity on the situation.

The latest inflation numbers published on Friday afternoon came in higher than expected. The core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.4% in February, above economists' 0.3% forecast. This pushed the 12-month inflation rate to 2.8%, exceeding the projected 2.7%.

At the same time consumer spending increased 0.4%, below the forecast of 0.5%, while the personal saving rate reached 4.6%, its highest since June 2024.

Markets: Markets left the week in deep red zone. The Nasdaq index down on Friday 2.6%, lost another 0.5% more in the after-hours trading; US 10-year yield down to 4.24%, gold with new all-time high at USD 3’086 per ounce. Global stock markets and cryptos joined the sell-off. Cryptos continue today trading lower.

My view: It is not a surprise that latest economic data was not well received. Investors are increasingly concerned about potential stagflation, where inflation remains persistent despite slower economic growth.
If upcoming US data continues to signal stagflation/recession, markets are likely to shift further into defensive positioning and risk-off mode. Let’s do not forget, investors recently added risk by increasing the equity exposure in their portfolio while buying the dip. That new allocation is already in minus.
My current positioning, however, is holding up well. I always maintain a core equity allocation, but I have been scaling back long-term positions gradually since the start of the year. At the same time, my short positions built tactically over that period are now paying off, helping keep my portfolio solidly in the green, despite the broader sell off.

Funds recorded substantial inflows last week, marking a new milestone. According to a Bank of America survey, global funds attracted approximately USD 43.4 billion in assets over the five trading days. The bulk of the growth was driven by U.S. markets, while European equity funds saw record-breaking inflows of USD 4.3 billion - the highest on record.

Markets: Today, markets remain broadly under pressure, with widespread weakness across stocks, bonds, and cryptos. The only bright spot is commodities, where gold and industrial metals are showing gains.

My view: It is very interesting to see that a large crowd, including major investment houses, jumped in to buy the dip - after all, it is a strategy that worked well for a long time. However, those who follow my commentary know that I have consistently taken a different stance. I have made it clear that I do not share this view and will not join the mainstream this time.

Holding a contrarian view in moments like these is not that easy, but it is a key ingredient in successful investing. Staying true to your own perspective and strategy, even when the noise is loud and the crowd is moving in the opposite direction, often makes all the difference.

Since I began regularly sharing my views here on Market Insights, the market has largely moved in line with my expectations. This approach has well paid off in my portfolio, especially during periods of heightened volatility and when major indices are even trading in negative territory.

Stock markets remain highly volatile. Following a recent correction - defined as a 10% decline from the recent peak - in US indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500, markets have rebounded modestly over the past several days. Yesterday, the markets added slight more gains, albeit on lower trading volumes.

Investors continue to seek clear guidance amid ongoing uncertainty. The latest consumer sentiment report this week, highlighted persistent weakness, reflecting growing concerns over economic conditions. Investors are now turning their attention to today's release of the U.S. durable goods orders report, hoping it will provide further clarity on the state of the economy.

Markets: today US futures trading sideways. Europe stocks continue to decline, interest rates see some more pressure on the upside. gold stable above the USD 3’000 level, cryptos with small gains.

My view: With trading volumes diminishing, the recent market rally could quickly run out of steam. Could this signal a “bull trap” - a scenario longtime not seen, in which prices temporary rise, encoring investors to buy, anticipating bullish momentum to continue, subsequently turns out to be temporary or false.

My perspective remains contrarian. I remain cautious about buying into this dip while strategists from prominent investment houses advising clients to accumulate stocks at current levels, even on high number of uncertainties. Numerous geopolitical and economic concerns persist: a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains far away, tensions in the Middle East tensions seem to re-escalate, and looming US tariffs add further instability. In Germany, following recent elections, there was an agreement on a new debt package aimed at infrastructure projects and military aid. However, practical implementation will require significant time, and the formation of a governing coalition has yet to be finalized.

US indices see a bounce today, driven by rumors of softer stance on tariffs from the White House. President Trump may impose fewer tariffs and should spare certain sectors from tariffs on April the 2nd.

Markets: US markets rally led by tech stocks, with Nasdaq up towards 2% while major stock markets in Europe and Asia continue to struggle. Interest rates see an uptick, USD slightly stronger while investors take some profit on gold. Crypto prices with an upswing.

My view: The rally was initiated by cryptos already late Sunday evening with some investors taking the risk to buy risk assets and play this rumors. Even my tactical allocation does not mirror today’s market move, I do not follow such speculations and keep a certain cautious stance as a high number of uncertainties remain (global tensions with re-escalation in Middle East, Russian war, German government formation, trade war etc.)

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the fed funds rate unchanged, as expected. The Fed indicated they see half a percentage point of rate cuts for 2025, which typically means two reductions.
At the same time, the central bank lowered its projection for US economic growth in 2025 to 1.7% from 2.1% in December, while raising its inflation outlook to 2.8% from 2.5%.
Furthermore, the committee announced to slow the pace of the quantitative tightening, reducing the pace of shrinking its balance sheet by selling bonds.

Markets: US markets jumped with Nasdaq closing the day up 1.3% while S&P 500 Index gained 1.08%. The 10-year Treasury fell down to 4.23% from 4.3% while short rates were going north. USD declined while gold price saw an uptick.

My view: I was surprised investors reacted so positively to the Fed's statement, given that the economic outlook appears less favorable and uncertainties about the impact of tariffs persist. Investors seem unconcerned about the increasing probability of an economic downturn and the potential escalation of the trade war. As a reminder, the next significant tariff announcement is scheduled for April 2nd.

My view on interest rates remains consistent: there is room for rates to decrease, particularly on the longer end. This outlook applies to Europe as well, with the recent spike in interest rates during March following Germany's announcement of a EUR 500 billion debt package.

Therefore, I continue to maintain my long-term Treasury position, established when the 10-year yield reached 4.8% back in January.

Regarding equities, I retain a cautious stance, even after the recent market correction.

The market is widely expecting the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting today. However, attention will focus on Chairman Jerome Powell's comments amid rising concerns over economic confidence. These concerns have intensified due to President Donald Trump's escalating trade disputes and tariffs, increasing fears of potential stagflation. The Fed's statements on these economic challenges will be closely watched for reassurance and guidance.

Markets: US interest rates are moving sideways during recent days with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering around 4.3%; gold above USD 3’000 continues the uptrend; US dollar continues to decline against major currencies

My view: Given that recent inflation figures and consumer expectations remain significantly above the Federal Reserve's target of 2%, there's currently no room for an interest rate cut. Investors appear overly optimistic, anticipating hints of potential future rate cuts in today's Fed statement. However, the economic situation remains uncertain, particularly considering the unclear impact of tariffs on economic growth.

Political uncertainty continues and may even intensify, particularly with the upcoming second and major round of tariffs scheduled for April 2nd. This could further increase market volatility and elevate recession risks.
Should a recession occur, it is likely that US president Donald Trump would place blame on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for not proactively lowering interest rates beforehand.

Under such a scenario, the stock market faces additional downside risk, potentially triggering a further correction with spillover effects on European and Asian markets. Long-term interest rates could decline further, whereas short-term rates might experience upward pressure.

A European company announced this morning ambitious targets for 2025, aiming for a year-on-year revenue increase of at least 40% and an adjusted EBIT margin exceeding 20%. Based on its previous year's revenue, the company projects EUR 60 million in revenue for 2025.

In 2024, the company achieved revenues of EUR 41.7 million, up from EUR 38.1 million the year before. Despite these positive growth figures, the company's current market capitalization stands at over EUR 1.3 billion.

60 million revenues vs. EUR 1.3 billion market cap!

The company is Steyr Motors AG, engaged in the defense sector, currently en vogue. The company is a manufacturer and distributor of diesel engines for heavy-duty vehicles, boats, and generator sets.

Markets: German DAX Index is pushing toward all-time highs, driven by news of a debt-financing package aimed at stimulating the economy and bolstering military defense efforts.

My view: To put this numbers into perspective: if Nvidia were valued at similar revenue-to-market cap multiples, its share price would be around USD 249. However, Nvidia’s share price is trading around USD 120 this afternoon.

While Steyr Motors AG benefits from operating in the currently booming defense sector, this valuation appears overly speculative. The stock of Steyr Motors is bought blindly without raising concerns about its valuation, just on hope to benefit from current rally.

Stay away from such speculations. The recent surge in defense stocks and European markets seems to be heavily reliant on optimism and capital inflows, much of it likely reallocated from US stocks. Valuations appear unsustainable without corresponding fundamental growth.

The latest US consumer survey, released last Friday, indicated sentiment at its lowest level since 2022 and below market expectations. According to the survey, the consumer sentiment index posted a mid-March reading of 57.9, a 10.5% decline from February, falling short of the consensus forecast for 63.2. At the same time, the one-year inflation outlook spiked to 4.9% (4.4% expected), marking the highest reading since November 2022.
Meanwhile, today’s retail sales data for February revealed modest growth of just 0.2%, also missing expectations of an 0.6% increase.
In contrast to the disappointing economic data from the US, recent figures from China have notably more positive and encouraging. China’s industrial production grew by 5.9% in February (5.3% expected). Consumption also demonstrated signs of acceleration, with retail sales rising by 4% year-on-year (3.8% estimated) in the first two months of the year.

Markets: US markets saw a bounce after briefly entering a correction territory (decline of 10%). China stock markets continued their upward trend.

My view: In the United States, consumer spending is by far the biggest driver of the economy, with personal consumption expenditures accounting for nearly 70% of the nation’s GDP. Consequently, if the consumer sentiment remains subdued, the likelihood of the US entering a recession increases significantly.

If a recession in the US materializes, further downside in US markets is likely, potentially triggering spillover effects across global markets.

Given the elevated risks, even after the recent market decline, I am cautious about aggressively chasing opportunities. Having taken broad-based profits, including from some long-term investments in recent weeks, I remain highly selective about new purchases. My tactical positioning remains unchanged: staying short on selected US tech stocks and semiconductor sector, while maintaining a long stance on Chinese internet stocks, which continue to represent my preferred region.

Should Chinese markets experience a pullback in the coming days, I may further increase exposure in this area.

Recent data indicates softer inflationary pressures, as the U.S. consumer price index released on Wednesday rose only 0.2%, slightly below analysts' expectations of a 0.3% increase. Today's published wholesale prices remained flat, further signaling easing price pressures in February.

Despite this positive inflation data, investor sentiment remains cautious, prompting shifts in portfolio allocations toward a recession-focused outlook in the U.S. market. This is reflected in recent sector performance trends, with technology, financials, and consumer cyclical stocks experiencing declines, while sectors such as energy, consumer staples, and utilities gained momentum.

Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions remain elevated, with Russia recently rejecting a proposed 30-day ceasefire in Ukraine.

Markets: global stock markets decline on a broad base, interest rates trending sideways, US dollar gains back some ground following recent losses, gold with new all-time high, cryptos sideways trending to losing ground.

My view: Following recent heavy losses, including Monday’s sharp decline - the worst since 2022 - markets tried to claw back some ground yesterday with a modest recovery. However, the rebound lacked certain strength, signaling to me a potential risk of further downside.
Currently, technical indicators provide little support for a sustained market recovery. On the contrary, technical strategies increasingly suggest downgrades. At the same time the investors sentiment remains on “extreme fear” level, an unusual persistence lasting over two weeks already. Typically, such extreme sentiment is short-lived and acts as a contrarian indicator, presenting buying opportunities. Current market conditions are definitely different, fueled by high number of uncertainties. With the Ukrainian war and trade war to continue there is not much evidence that markets should calm down and investors gain back some confidence in the near-term.

I believe the recession scenario should be taken seriously, as the probability is clearly rising.

In the ETFMandate portfolio I further reduced my overall equity exposure by taking selectively profit on European stocks together with tactical short-term investments and by adding only few positions with a long-term investment horizon.
My exposure to the financial sector has now been significantly decreased, approaching nearly zero. After previously exiting all positions in US financial stocks, I have recently reduced exposure to European banks and insurance companies over the past two weeks. For the time being, only select UK financial holdings remain in the portfolio.
In addition, with the recovery move yesterday, I re-opened the short call on semiconductors via a short ETF.

In recent years, private equity has gained significant traction as an attractive investment option, driven by an extended period of historically low interest rates and subdued returns from traditional asset classes. Initially accessible and favored by institutional investors, private equity has increasingly become accessible to private investors as well, drawn by the potential for higher returns.
Private equity offers distinct characteristics, including: illiquidity, leverage, limited transparency, higher fees, long-term investment horizon, potential of higher returns.
This combination of higher return expectations for investors and attractive fee structures for banks has created a compelling win-win scenario, making private equity an increasingly popular component of diversified investment portfolios.

Markets: Volumes in the private equity market have grown significantly in recent years, driven by strong demand, fueled by the performance and return potential. As a result, private equity firms have raised substantial amounts of capital, creating considerable pressure to identify and pursue attractive new investment opportunities.

My view: I always aim to think ahead and proactively prepare for potential market scenarios. Currently, the market is not yet in panic mode, as illustrated with my last comment on Market Insights “Recession fears”. However, if the current sell-off continues, it could trigger a cascade effect involving stop-limit orders by technical indicators and margin calls, leading to increased downward pressure and possibly leading to a short-term market collapse.

Private investors, particularly those advised by banks, remain significantly invested in the tech sector. Should market sentiment deteriorate further, fear could prompt these investors to reduce exposure to limit losses or secure profits, significantly increasing the supply of shares in the market.

Several factors are converging to create heightened uncertainty, including recent political turmoil and an increasingly unpredictable economic trajectory. Additionally, the market currently has a substantial population of speculators lacking deep market experience, who until now have consistently relied on buying dips. This strategy, effective during recent years, is now failing to yield the same results, with many speculators rapidly exhausting available capital. Consequently, the diminished buying power could substantially reduce market demand.

This scenario, characterized by increased supply and dwindling demand, poses a tangible risk of further stock price declines, potentially escalating into a market crash.

Notably, private equity has yet to experience a genuine financial storm. The brief market downturn during the covid pandemic quickly reversed within a matter of months, and thus does not represent a true crisis scenario. However, the current situation seems fundamentally different. If negative momentum intensifies, the likelihood of a significant market crash grows considerably.

Given private equity's inherent illiquidity, simultaneous investor withdrawals could amplify market stress, potentially leading to systemic consequences like of a house of cards collapsing, adversely impacting private equity portfolios and financial institutions alike.

Although this is not yet my primary outlook, it has become a critical scenario I actively consider in my investment decision-making process.

The market sell-off is intensifying, driven by deteriorating investor sentiment. Fears of a recession have resurfaced following recent political turmoil, though in the US, current economic data do not yet indicate such a downturn.

Markets: Global stock markets are firmly in the red, extending losses from Asia through Europe to the US, where the Nasdaq is currently down 3.3%. Interest rates remain broadly stable, gold prices show little movement, and commodities are mostly lower. Cryptocurrencies experience significant losses, with Bitcoin falling below USD 80’000. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc has lost some ground against major currencies.

My view: The sentiment index continues to indicate an "extreme fear" level; however, I do not see markets yet in panic mode. Correlations among equities and across various asset classes have not yet converged towards 1, a scenario typically observed during periods of intense market stress when investors indiscriminately sell risk assets and rush into cash, causing all asset classes to move in the same direction. However, volatility continues to rise as expected.

With recession fears coming back, sector rotation can be observed, from the cyclical to more defensive sectors such as energy, consumer staples and utilities. With the exception of utilities, my portfolio has a larger allocation to energy and consumer staples, selectively built up over an extended period.

Momentum strategies are currently out of favor. My contrarian investment philosophy is exceptionally well-positioned to capitalize on these market conditions.
As highlighted during recent weeks already, I have recently initiated short positions in overhyped stocks, continued taking profits on equities with strong recent performance, and selectively bought stocks that have been heavily beaten down or neglected.
Today, I continued to reduce exposure by taking profits in select European equities and financials as well as some Chinese stocks which have delivered strong gains since the beginning of the year.

The battle over tariffs between countries is not the only one unfolding. Financial markets have become another battleground. Investors driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) clash with those gripped by fear, leading to significant market swings in recent days.
This volatility persists even as an indicator of investor sentiment has been signaling "extreme fear" for several days.

Meanwhile, the ECB lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points today to support and stimulate weak economy.

Markets: China stock market continued to rally, European markets with a rebound in the later trading session ending the day mostly in the green. In the US, tech sell-off continues, USD weak and Euro declines against Swiss franc after the latest fast increase.

My view: At the moment, economic data has taken a backseat, yet it remains more important than ever to monitor. Investors are chasing the markets, with speculative money rushing to "buy the dip" at any sign of opportunity, largely driven by hope and past experiences. This strategy has worked well in recent years. However, as mentioned before, this time is different. Many speculators, lacking market experience, have never faced significant losses and continue to rely on the belief that buying the dip will always pay off.

This speculation is fueling irrational market movements, creating both risks and opportunities. Recently, the euro has strengthened on hopes of a recovery, spurred by potential stimulus measures. However, I remain skeptical that Europe will stage a meaningful turnaround, especially given the heightened uncertainties compared to just a few weeks ago.

As a result, I made a significant adjustment to my investment strategy today, hedging the euro against the Swiss franc at 0.9592, before the European Central Bank announced its rate cut.

Market patterns are shifting almost on an hourly basis:
The battle on tariffs and trade war kicked-in. Tariffs are being implemented, put on hold, selectively applied to certain sectors, or merely announced as potential measures.
Adding to the uncertainty, geopolitical instability remains a major global concern, with the unpredictable situation in Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Germany is pushing for fiscal reforms to enable increased defense and infrastructure spending.

Markets: strong rebound on a global basis catching up some of the recent losses, interest rates in Europe and US are rising while the Euro saw a strong increase.

My view: To benefit from this short-term and fast moving market swings based on the news flow is almost impossible. As the German saying goes “hin und her macht Taschen leer”, frequent trading and fast changing the tactical investment view can quickly deplete your funds. The risk of losses is high since market reactions are often swift, reversing direction before a trade can be executed with a positive payoff.

I also do not expect Trump to easily strike deals or lift tariffs in the coming days or weeks. His strategy seems more focused on demonstrating power and using tariffs as a threat to future trade partners. Europe is likely to be the next target.

What does such an environment mean for corporations? Strategic planning becomes extremely difficult, if not impossible. In times of uncertainty, management tends to put investments and projects on hold rather than commit capital. If this chaotic situation persists, the risk of a recession will undoubtedly increase.

The key takeaway: do not chase the news. Maintain a steady investment stance and act selectively. As I have mentioned several times before already, I expect volatility to remain elevated. Therefore, my portfolio is structured accordingly to manage downside risks, especially as valuations appear stretched, and investors put a lot of optimisms in the tariff topic.
While German reforms could provide a boost to the economy, much of the optimism already seems priced in following the recent surge in stock prices.

At lot of news and latest economic data released reaching us, all have a certain potential of a bigger market impact:
- on Friday evening, the clash between US president Donald Trump and Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
- on Sunday, in a Truth Social post, US president Donald Trump announced the creation of cryptocurrency reserves and the selected crypto candidates.
- today, higher inflation data out of Europe with leading indicators showing continued weakness.
- announced tariffs should be in place by tomorrow.
Exception is China, where leading indicators start to show a potential acceleration of the economy, with the PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) marking over the 50 threshold, indication growth.

Markets: China’s stock indices trading sideways; in Europe, euphoria seems to continue, stock prices see a big jump today; US Futures continue to rise so far after the late rally on Friday. Interest rates continue to decline with the US 10-year Treasury below 4.2%. Cryptos give up part of the big gains. Euro rises while US dollar weakens; gold rises after the latest profit taking.

My view: Almost no day with news that could negatively impact financial markets. Yet, investors continue to largely ignore them. Geopolitical tensions and uncertainty are steadily rising to levels unseen for years, while economic data increasingly signals some weakness. Consumer data from both Europe and the US, a crucial pillar of the economy, has recently softened, while inflation remains persistently high. The potential introduction of tariffs could even reignite inflationary pressures, raising concerns about a slower-than-expected rate cut cycle.

Regarding cryptos, I would not be surprised if there was some insider trading took place ahead of the weekend announcement. After the recent sell-off and Sunday’s sharp rebound, the question is now on whether the market can establish a sustainable stabilization.

Despite these growing number of risks, which even are becoming more probable, investors seem unfazed.
Given this backdrop, the overall investment view remains unchanged. I refrain from taking an all-in stance, remain a bit cautious. This also means I am keeping most of my short positions in place, lowering my net long equity exposure.
I selectively add positions and some bets, focusing on beaten-down stocks, with strong potential for recovery while shorting overhyped stocks that have surged due to speculation.
Improving economic data from China convince me to keep a focus and therefore a major allocation in Chinese equities as I see more upside from here even after the latest increase. However, should the trade war escalate, China’s markets could hardly withdraw from a correction.

After an already strong and exceptional January with over 12%, I achieved yet another impressive performance in February:

Portfolio Performance YTD: +28.90% (28.02.2025)

Market Performance:
ACWI* +2.83%
DAX +13.27%
Nasdaq -2.31%

Another outstanding month!
Primary performance drivers, a high weight on China's tech stocks while the portfolio was tactically well positioned to capitalize on the burst of the AI bubble in the US through short positions in the most crowded stocks. Additionally, the U.S. dollar has been hedged since its peak in mid-January, preventing the portfolio from major currency losses. Bonds and commodities also ended the month in positive territory.

Long-term value stock investments contributed nicely to performance, while some U.S. small caps and positions in the hydrogen sector faced challenges.

Markets: While China’s stock market and Europe saw rising stock prices, the US saw some sell-off together with India and Japan. Interest rates declined. US dollar traded lower. Cryptos saw heavy decline. Gold reached a new all-time high.

My view: I am very satisfied with the performance achieved so far, recognizing that the past two months have been rather exceptional.

Bubbles do not burst every day. However, when they do, they trigger exceptionally strong market moves. As an independent investor and with the technical available set-up, As an independent investor, equipped with the right technical setup, I can react swiftly to market dynamics, including capitalizing on falling stock prices through short selling.
While the exact timing of a bubble’s burst is unpredictable, I began building short positions as early as mid December last year, anticipating that the event was approaching. Since then, I have progressively increased and added short positions in skyrocketing stocks, particularly in the tech and artificial intelligence (AI) sectors.

The bursting of a bubble is a rare event, often leading to sharp and rapid downturns. Some stocks plunged by 30 to 40% within just two to three days. Being well-positioned at such a moment is the most significant contributor to performance, as investors scramble to exit simultaneously.

*MSCI all Countries World Index

Nvidia's earnings release turned out to be a non-event last night, with the stock barely reacting. However, today painted a different picture. After an initial 2% rise, the stock took a sharp downturn, closing around 8% lower.
News about tariffs from the White House weighed on market sentiment, triggering significant losses.
The tariffs announced over a month ago and temporarily suspended will take effect on March 4. US President Donald Trump set 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, along with a 10% tariff on goods from China, an additional 10% levy.
At the same time, Trump announced a 25% tariff on autos and other imported goods from Europe. Further details are expected to be revealed at the beginning of April. European leaders reacted promptly and strongly, saying they will react firmly and immediately.

Markets: European indices down around 1%, Nasdaq down almost 3%, cryptos continue the downturn, oil and US dollar gain while gold takes a hit, interest rates moving sideways.

My View: It is interesting how quickly investors seem to forget. The tariffs were only temporarily suspended, and it was clear this issue would resurface by the end of the month, especially given Donald Trump's well-known stance on tariffs.
However, there is still time to negotiate a solution to avoid these tariffs. That said, I believe the tariffs could very well take effect this time. President Trump wants to assert his authority and prove that tariffs are not just a bluff but a real policy tool that can be implemented at any moment.

As I have previously mentioned, short-term market patterns driven by investors and speculators have largely ignored these negative factors in recent weeks. So, it is no surprise to me that stock market took a hit today. Expecting such a hit, my portfolio was well-positioned for this turmoil, closing the day even with a small gain.

After the four days loosing streak markets seemed to rebound today. What worked for European equities, only worked in the first half of today’s trading session for US markets.

Markets: European indices up more than 1%, US stocks with intraday reversal after a 1% gain. Cryptos with big losses.

My View: Already yesterday, on quite a number of channels I could read or hear about the advice to buy the dip. Why not, as this worked out very well so far each time in the past with a similar market and sentiment situation, at least on first sight.
I already mentioned yesterday, that this time could be different. The reason, why I did not take the risk to add new exposure. Uncertainties remain and the topic of tariffs comes back on the agenda, at latest by end of the month.

Let's first see what Nvidia earnings release will bring tonight. I expect the news will have quite a market impact on a short-term basis.