30.04.25 - US economy shrunk

The US economy contracted for the first time in three years. In the first three months of 2025, the GDP falls 0.3% in Q1 2025 amid policy uncertainty weighed on businesses. Analysts expected a growth rate of 0.4%.

Markets: US Futures down with Nasdaq Futures down 2%, US 10-year yield is higher, US dollar down, gold price up

My view: Markets could see a rough trading day after this set of data. As I highlighted during the recent weeks already, the recession scenario becomes more realistic as Q1 already saw a surprising contraction. This could be a turning point after the recent risk on sentiment.

My portfolio allocation is already positioned for such a scenario, which is why I am not making any adjustments at this stage.

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