22.04.2026 - Risk on — Reality off

The US has extended its ceasefire with Iran for an undefined period. Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly targeted three vessels transiting the Strait without authorization.

Planned talks in Pakistan have been called off, as Iran indicated it would not send a delegation.

The situation remains fragile and highly unpredictable.

Markets: US equities continue to reach new all-time highs, with investors seemingly brushing aside geopolitical tensions and rising risks. At the same time, oil has climbed back above USD 100 per barrel, reflecting growing concerns in energy markets.

My View: Current investor behavior, particularly the persistence of systematic and momentum-driven strategies, feels increasingly detached from underlying realities. Markets are priced for pure optimism, yet the risk backdrop has not improved. If anything, uncertainties are compounding almost daily.

I remain highly attentive to headlines, as any sudden development, or even a single tweet, has the potential to shift market direction abruptly.

At this stage, I see no compelling reason to adjust my allocation. The current risk-reward profile does not justify increasing exposure, especially given the potential for sharp downside moves driven by escalating uncertainty or negative economic news.

That said, I acknowledge the possibility that this risk-on environment may persist longer than expected, and I am willing to accept that risk.

The core issue remains unchanged: uncertainties are not decreasing, they are accumulating.

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