28.04.2026 - Decisive week
This week stands out as one of the most important macro and market inflection points in recent months. A rare combination of Big Tech earnings and a global cluster of central bank decisions will set the tone across asset classes.
Big Tech Earnings:
On the corporate side, the spotlight is clearly on the US mega caps. Results from Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Apple and Eli Lilly are expected to drive index direction, particularly given their heavy weight and ongoing AI-driven narrative.
In Europe, key updates from Airbus, Air Liquide, AstraZeneca, TotalEnergies, UBS and Schneider Electric will provide further insight into industrial demand, energy dynamics and financial sector resilience.
Central bank decisions:
At the same time, monetary policy takes center stage. A rare alignment of decisions from the Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Canada and Reserve Bank of Australia adds another layer of uncertainty.
The Bank of Japan already set the tone this morning. As widely expected, it kept its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% (6–3 vote), but delivered a clearly hawkish message. The central bank reiterated its intention to continue tightening gradually, supported by rising inflation expectations and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, particularly linked to the Middle East conflict.
Markets reacted accordingly. The Nikkei 225 slipped following the announcement while the Japan 10-year yield moved closer to 2.5%. Precious metals such as gold and silver saw some weakness on the back of the more hawkish tone.
Markets:
Equities: mixed in Asia and Europe while Futures are negative in the US
Bonds: yields remain elevated - Japan 10y at 2.48%, US 10y at 4.37%
Commodities: oil prices supported by supply concerns with WTI USD 100/barrel and Brent at USD 111/barrel.
Precious metals fall - silver around USD 73/oz and gold around USD 4’600/ozCurrencies: USD rising while CHF weakens
Cryptos: fall - Bitcoin down to USD 76k
Volatility: The VIX rises from lower levels towards 19
My View: The market is becoming extremely stretched to one side. This is clearly reflected in the historic 17-day winning streak of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index. A move never seen, driven by the latest earnings momentum from Texas Instruments and Intel. This record run eclipsed the previous 15-day record from 2014.
Valuations in parts of the market have now moved beyond levels seen during the dot-com bubble. That alone should raise attention.
The setup is simple: the bow is under extreme tension. When positioning, sentiment, and price action all align in one direction, it only takes a small trigger to unwind the move. The coming days offer plenty of potential catalysts: earnings, central banks, geopolitics.
At the same time, the situation around Iran remains unresolved. The market continues to largely ignore this risk. Current political positioning by Trump suggests more of a wait-and-see approach rather than a clear path toward resolution. The probability of renewed escalation remains elevated.
And this is where I see investors underestimating the bigger picture: the global economy is increasingly exposed to an energy shock scenario. Supply disruptions, fragile logistics, and geopolitical uncertainty are not reflected in current in prices of risk assets.
In such an environment, the downside reaction can be significantly faster than the upside build-up.
Is this the time of a turning point? At least, the current setup leaves very little margin for error. I expect at least bumpy markets ahead with more downside, why I increased my bets on falling stock markets by adding more short positions in the portfolio during the last days.
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