21.04.2026 - Ceasefire expires

We are now in the final hours of the temporary ceasefire. The situation is once again shifting toward escalation. A US delegation has travelled to Pakistan in an attempt to keep diplomatic channels alive. However, Iran signaled it will not participate in any talks, putting negotiations effectively at risk before they even begin.

At the same time, both sides are already accusing each other of violating the ceasefire terms, a typical pattern seen ahead of renewed conflict phases. The window for de-escalation is narrowing quickly.

Markets: US markets are holding up quite well for now, supported by hope rather than clarity. While European markets moved lower into the closing.

My View: Markets remain optimistically positioned, arguably too optimistic given the underlying reality. Investors are still conditioned to expect the next supportive headline, whether it’s another statement published by Donald Trump or a last-minute “TACO-style” announcement that delays escalation once again.

Sentiment indicators continue to hover in “greed” territory, close to “extreme greed.” That is typically not the environment where risks are properly priced.

The clock is ticking. The situation is once again at the critical point.

If the ceasefire officially expires without a credible path forward, the probability of a renewed escalation increases materially. This is not just about headlines, it directly ties into the unresolved issue of energy flows and the structural risk around the Strait of Hormuz.

A re-acceleration of the conflict would likely trigger:

• Downside pressure on equities

• A sharp move higher in oil prices

• A delayed reaction in volatility, followed by a potential spike

This remains a headline-driven market, but one where the gap between positioning and reality is widening again.

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