10.04.2026 - Oil artery still blocked – waiting for inflation signal
This weekend, the first talks between the US and Iran are set to take place —
In the meantime, the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global oil shipments, remains effectively blocked. Despite the announced ceasefire, tanker traffic is still near a standstill. According to Reuters, flows are running at well below 10% of normal volumes, an extraordinary disruption for global energy markets.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia reports additional supply constraints after damages:
– Pipeline flows reduced by ~700,000 barrels per day following pump station damage
– Output capacity down by ~600,000 barrels per day
This afternoon, markets will focus on the US March CPI release — the first major inflation print since the Iran conflict triggered a severe energy shock. This data point will be critical for rate expectations and overall market direction.
Markets: mixed
Equities: Asia, Europe higher, US flat
Bonds: broadly tick higher - Japan 10y at 2.44% (!) highest since decades
Commodities: oil prices moved higher with WTI above USD 98/barrel and Brent at USD 96/barrel. Precious metals rise further - silver above USD 76/oz and gold above at USD 4’775/oz
Currencies: no big moves - USD unchanged
Cryptos: up - Bitcoin above USD 72k
Volatility: The VIX little changed - remains below 20
My View: Fragile oil flow. Fragile economy. Fragile consumers.
Despite clear signs of ongoing supply disruption and rising cost pressure, equity markets continue to show a surprising level of optimism.
My view remains unchanged: investors are broadly too complacent.
At least, investors continue to weigh the persistent supply risks, with oil prices edging higher again.
US-Iran talks this weekend, investors believe to be a potential turning point. However, it will be far from a resolution. The way the ceasefire was announced and Irans 10-points plan published right after let me believe that the talks will not end successfully after the weekend, leaving investors to be rather disappointed.
Today’s inflation data could act as a key catalyst. A stronger-than-expected CPI print would reinforce the reality of the energy shock and likely push rate expectations higher, a combination that markets are not fully pricing in.
The disconnect between macro risk and market pricing remains elevated.
A cautious stance remains key. After this weeks strong rally, a near-term dip cannot be ruled out this moment.
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