09.04.2026 - Fragile Deal
The Middle East conflict remains the dominant market driver. News flow is relentless, with new developments emerging almost on an hourly basis.
This afternoon, Israel agreed to enter direct negotiations with Lebanon — a potentially constructive signal. However, at the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, keeping the core risk unresolved.
Markets: mixed
Equities: US indices turned positive in the later trading session
Bonds: largely unchanged
Commodities: oil prices moved higher with WTI close to USD 100/barrel and Brent at USD 97/barrel. Precious metals rise further - silver above USD 76/oz and gold above at USD 4’775/oz
Currencies: USD lower again
Cryptos: higher - Bitcoin above USD 72k
Volatility: The VIX falls below 20
My View: As already highlighted yesterday on Instagram, the more details emerge around the announced US-Iran ceasefire deal, the less convincing the overall setup appears to me to move in a positive direction.
It increasingly looks like a rushed attempt by Trump to engineer a ceasefire, without a clear and credible plan to resolve the underlying conflict. The US assumption that this would be a short and straightforward operation was fading quickly.
Most importantly:
The Strait of Hormuz is still not truly open.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia is now indicating a production loss of roughly 600’000 barrels per day due to damage, a disruption that cannot be restored overnight.
Oil remains the key barometer for now.
While equities are currently drifting higher and behaving as if risks are fading, the oil market is telling a very different story. This divergence is critical.
Markets appear disconnected from reality, and that is where the real risk lies.
If and when investors start to reprice based on actual supply disruptions and prolonged geopolitical stress, the adjustment in risk assets could be sharp.
A cautious stance remains key.
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