08.04.2026 - Ceasefire

One hour before the deadline, US and Iran agreed on a two weeks ceasefire plan which was mediated by Pakistan. During this time the Strait of Hormuz should be open again.

Ten terms by the Iranian proposal got accepted by the US for negotiations. Among these, Iran should charge all ships passing the Strait and should take full control of the entire passage.

First negotiations are scheduled for Friday 10 April.

In the meanwhile, Israel came out with a statement, noting that it was a decision by the US president. Israel makes clear that it has not achieved the goals as the Iran regime is still there. Lebanon is not included in the ceasefire.

Markets: equities are pumping oil is dumping

• Equities: indices jump globally

• Bonds: yields fall - US 10y yield at 4.24% - Japan 10y 2.37%

• Commodities: oil prices slump - WTI crude oil down USD 96/barrel and Brent at USD 95/barrel. Precious metals surge - silver above USD 77/oz and gold above at USD 4’800/oz

• Currencies: USD falls while Swiss franc strengthened

• Cryptos: jump - Bitcoin above USD 71k

• Volatility: The VIX falls back to 20

My View: The short-term market reaction makes sense. At first sight, this looks like an all-clear signal: less immediate war risk, lower oil, lower volatility, higher equities. But I do not see this as a convincing reason for markets to keep rising from here.

The key issue is that the underlying conflict is not resolved. The ceasefire is temporary, Israel has already distanced itself from parts of the arrangement, Lebanon is excluded, and the situation around the Strait of Hormuz remains operationally and politically fragile. Shipping and energy markets may have received short-term relief, but the operational reality in the Strait is far from normal.
On top of that, I struggle to see how the US would accept a lasting framework in which Iran exerts full control over the passage and charges vessels at will.

For me, this looks more like a relief rally than the start of a sustainable upside leg. Markets have priced out a portion of the immediate worst-case scenario, but they may be far too quick to price in stability.

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