13.04.2026 - Oil artery double blocked

Talks in Islamabad between the US and Iran ended after 21hours negotiations without reaching a deal.
Donald Trump issued a new threat to block the Strait of Hormuz for any type of shipments. Iran responded with a stark warning: if its ports are threatened, no port in the Gulf will be safe.

At the same time, geopolitical risks broadened. Trump signaled potential 50% tariffs on China, following reports that Beijing may deliver new air defense systems to Iran.

Markets: back and forth - today: back again

• Equities: globally down again

• Bonds: broadly tick higher - Japan 10y at 2.47% (!) highest since decades, US 10y at 4.35%

• Commodities: oil prices jumped higher: WTI USD 104/barrel and Brent at USD 102/barrel. Precious metals fall - silver above USD 74/oz and gold above at USD 4’700/oz

• Currencies: up again - USD unchanged

• Cryptos: under pressure - Bitcoin down to USD 70k

• Volatility: The VIX back above 20 at level 21

My View: What started as a regional conflict is increasingly turning into a multi-front geopolitical escalation.

Talks failed. Strategy failed. The key question now: what is the exit strategy?

For the US administration, stepping back would implicitly mean admitting a major miscalculation. That makes a quick resolution politically difficult and increases the risk of further escalation.

At the same time, markets remain surprisingly resilient, especially equities.

This is where the disconnect becomes critical:

• Energy shock → inflation pressure rising again

• Yields moving higher → tightening financial conditions

• Consumer sentiment risk → with rising costs for goods and transportation

• Geopolitical risk expanding → tail risks increasing

Yet equities are still trading as if this is a quick and only temporary disturbance.

To me, current valuations do not reflect this reality. Positioning, liquidity, and still-present “buy-the-dip” behavior seem to dominate, for now. But this setup looks increasingly fragile.

I remain cautious. Risk/reward at current levels is unattractive.
I continue to run limited exposure and stay positioned for a market stress scenario. Because if this “double blockage” of the global oil artery persists, the repricing across assets is not a question of if — but when.

Become a member to access more valuable market updates like this