28.07.2026 - Technical Levels in Focus

Since Friday, the Nasdaq Index has fallen below an important technical support level, breaking to the downside from the sideways trading channel that had been building since May. The move represents a deterioration in the technical picture and increases the risk of further selling pressure.

As I highlighted on Friday on my Instagram @etfmandate and in my Weekend Mail, a confirmed break of this support level would likely trigger additional selling as technical traders and momentum investors reduce exposure.

A similar picture is unfolding in South Korea. The KOSPI Index has fallen by more than 10% today, led by heavy losses in semiconductor and memory stocks. The decline has been amplified by forced liquidations and margin calls, accelerating the downward move.

The weakness remains concentrated in technology, particularly in companies closely linked to the AI investment theme.

Markets:

• Equities: Technology stocks continue to underperform, while many other equity markets remain relatively resilient

• Bonds: little changed, US 10y yield around 4.62%, Japan 10y yield 2.78%

• Commodities: Oil prices stabilized after falling yesterday, WTI around USD 82/barrel and Brent around USD 86/barrel

  Precious metals: fall, gold at USD 4’025/oz, silver trades above USD 57/oz

• Currencies: USD little changed

• Cryptos: moving lower - Bitcoin at USD 63k

• Volatility: moves higher with the VIX index towards 19, however, remains rather low
  

My View: Technology continues to lead the market lower, and that deserves close attention.

So far, the selling has largely remained concentrated in semiconductor and AI-related stocks. However, rising volatility and forced selling through margin calls increase the risk that weakness spreads into other sectors of the market.

Technical breaks often become self-reinforcing. Once key support levels fail, systematic strategies, momentum funds and leveraged investors frequently become sellers at the same time. That does not necessarily signal the start of a bear market, but it does increase the probability that the current correction extends further before a sustainable bottom is established.

For now, the technical picture has become more important.
I will be watching closely whether these support breaks trigger broader risk reduction across global equities or remain largely confined to the technology sector.

This week's earnings from Microsoft, Apple, Amazon and Meta are now in sharp focus. They will provide another key test of whether today's AI-driven valuations can still be justified. With expectations remaining exceptionally high, the reports and outlooks have the potential to move not only technology stocks but the broader market in either direction.

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