27.07.2026 - Strikes paused
After threatening further heavy strikes before the weekend, the United States has suspended military attacks on Iran for the past two days. President Donald Trump stated that he had ordered a halt to the strikes, while Iran has also refrained from retaliatory action.
The temporary pause has fueled speculation that both sides are using the time to reassess their positions. At the same time, reports continue to circulate that the United States is facing growing pressure on its stockpiles of precision-guided munitions and Patriot interceptors, which are essential for protecting US assets and Middle Eastern allies against ongoing drone and missile attacks.
The economics of the conflict also remain striking. Using a Patriot interceptor costing roughly USD 4 million to destroy a drone worth approximately USD 30,000 is an extremely expensive defensive strategy and raises questions about the long-term sustainability of such operations.
Markets: welcomed the pause in hostilities.
Equities: rising globally with US Futures up more than 1%
Bonds: falling slightly, US 10y yield around 4.64%, Japan 10y yield 2.78%
Commodities: Oil prices fall substantially by 7%, WTI around USD 84/barrel and Brent around USD 91/barrel
Precious metals: advance, gold at USD 4’095/oz, silver trades above USD 59/oz
Currencies: USD slightly lower
Cryptos: moved higher over the weekend already, now flat - Bitcoin at USD 65k
Volatility: moves lower with the VIX index at 17
My View: Markets are once again behaving as if the conflict is moving toward a lasting resolution. I remain skeptical.
In my view, this looks far more like a tactical pause than the end of the war. Both sides may simply be buying time, to replenish munitions, reposition military assets, and reassess their next steps.
From a strategic perspective, I do not believe the United States is currently in a strong position to dictate the outcome of this conflict. Iran still retains meaningful leverage, and many of the fundamental issues that triggered the escalation remain unresolved.
The market's willingness to quickly price out geopolitical risk reminds me how rapidly sentiment can swing from fear to optimism. History suggests these assumptions often prove premature.
For investors, nothing has changed.
I continue to view the geopolitical risks as elevated. At this stage, I see no reason to change my portfolio positioning.
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