12.06.2026 - Historic Day - SpaceX to Mars
Today marks a historic day for financial markets as the largest IPO ever is set to take place.
SpaceX is expected to make its stock market debut at an offering price of USD 135 per share, raising USD 75 billion and valuing the company at approximately USD 1.77 trillion. The deal is almost twice the size of the last record-breaking IPO, Saudi Aramco, and would immediately make SpaceX the seventh most valuable company in the United States. It also looks set to propel Elon Musk to become the world's first trillionaire.
Demand appears extraordinary. According to reports, the offering is more than four times oversubscribed, while retail investors alone are said to have submitted orders exceeding USD 100 billion.
Markets: Markets remain on a bumpy road. However, once again, investor sentiment has been supported by another deal announcement from President Trump, encouraging investors to focus on optimism rather than underlying risks. The sheer scale of investor enthusiasm underlines the enormous appetite for one of the most anticipated stock market debuts in history.
My View: SpaceX to Mars!
This IPO has been hyped for weeks across social media channels among traders, or, let's face it, gamblers.
In my view, a company that burns billions of cash has never deserved such a sky-high valuation. Investors are paying almost entirely for future hopes and potential cash flows that may or may not materialize. Nobody seems to care. The atmosphere increasingly resembles the dot-com bubble. Yet, as always, many argue that "this time is different."
The biggest winners are the current shareholders and especially Elon Musk, who are now able to sell shares to private and retail investors at moon, or rather Mars, prices.
Oversubscription itself fuels the hype. Investors who hope to receive USD 10’000 worth of shares may have to place orders exceeding USD 40’000. The illusion of scarcity creates even more excitement and pushes demand to extreme levels.
I would not be surprised to see the shares surge initially. But I would be equally unsurprised if a sharp sell-off follows soon afterwards or days after. From the past, I have the Facebook IPO well in mind.
Bookrunners have every incentive to support the stock in the early stages. They know that two more mega IPOs, Anthropic and OpenAI, are waiting in the pipeline. A successful SpaceX listing would help pave the way for those offerings and generate another wave of lucrative fees. A disappointing performance, however, could jeopardize or delay future listings if market conditions deteriorate.
To sum up, this is simply another gambling story. Keep your hands off.
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