15.06.2026 - Deal - Relax! Only a Memorandum
As announced by US President Donald Trump since mid-March, the United States and Iran appear finally to be moving toward a peace agreement aimed at ending the conflict and restoring stability to the region.
According to multiple reports, Washington and Tehran have agreed on a memorandum with a framework that includes:
A permanent ceasefire.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
A 60-day negotiation period to work out a comprehensive agreement.
A commitment by the US not to impose additional sanctions during the talks.
Discussions on sanctions relief and the release of frozen Iranian assets.
The deal is expected to be formally signed later this week.
Earlier in the week, President Trump stated that an agreement had already been approved, while Tehran denied that a final deal had been reached. Since then, negotiators have narrowed the remaining differences, although many details are still missing.
Markets: cheer like the final deal got already signed
Equities: Higher, as investors cheer what they perceive to be a lasting solution.
Bonds: Government bond yields moved lower.
Commodities: Oil prices declined sharply as fears of supply disruptions eased. Precious metals traded higher.
Currencies: USD weaker, CHF stronger
My View: It appears that my assessment over recent months was correct: President Trump is doing everything possible to support financial markets and avoid a negative backdrop heading into the midterm elections. Markets are clearly one of his top priorities, and rising asset prices ultimately benefit him personally as well.
He needs a positive outcome from the Iran conflict without losing face. That explains the strong push to reach an agreement and remove some of the pressure. However, many details are still missing, and it is far too early to draw final conclusions.
Investors should therefore not confuse a diplomatic breakthrough with a final solution. Major issues remain unresolved, including:
Iran's uranium enrichment activities.
The future of its highly enriched uranium stockpiles.
Ballistic missile programs.
Iran's regional proxies.
Long-term sanctions relief.
In other words, this is not yet a final nuclear agreement. What has been achieved so far is essentially a ceasefire and a roadmap for further negotiations. Iran has not yet agreed to all terms.
The next 60 days will determine whether both sides can turn this framework into a lasting accord.
From a market perspective, the immediate consequence is clear: the risk of a prolonged disruption in the Strait of Hormuz has somewhat declined. However, the waterway will only fully reopen once the memorandum is formally signed. Until then, markets are likely to remain vulnerable to every new headline.
Yet investors already seem to be celebrating as if a comprehensive solution has been reached. Given the many unresolved issues, that may prove premature.
Do not forget that the economic damage has already been done. Inflation remains elevated, central banks are turning more hawkish, and more than ten central banks are set to announce interest-rate decisions this week.
Looking at financial markets, everything appears perfect. In reality, we are far from a perfect environment. It is simply another round in which asset prices are being pushed even further away from economic fundamentals.
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