30.04.2026 - Divided Fed – Exploding AI Capex
The Federal Reserve delivered its most divided decision since 1992, holding rates steady at 3.5%–3.75% in an 8–4 split. A clear sign that internal disagreement is rising at a time when macro visibility remains low.
While this may mark one of the final meetings under Jerome Powell as chair, he signaled his intention to remain on the Board of Governors.
Away from central banks, earnings season painted a more constructive picture, at least on the first sight.
Alphabet delivered strong results with 20% revenue growth and lifted its capex outlook to as much as USD 190 billion for 2026. Microsoft also beat expectations but flagged sharply rising memory costs as AI-related spending accelerates.
Across Big Tech, including Amazon and Meta Platforms, the message is consistent: the AI arms race is intensifying. Combined hyperscaler capex is now expected to reach roughly USD 725 billion in 2026.
In Asia, Samsung Electronics reported an over eightfold increase in quarterly operating profit, highlighting how deeply the semiconductor cycle is tied to this spending boom.
Markets: Iran developments continue to weigh on sentiment
Equities: mostly down in Asia and Europe - only Nasdaq Futures with a light plus
Bonds: yields keep rising - Japan 10y at 2.52%, US 10y at 4.41%
Commodities: oiI prices jump - USD 108/barrel and Brent at USD 121/barrel.
Precious metals regain - silver around USD 73/oz and gold around USD 4’620/ozCurrencies: USD slightly falls
Cryptos: lower - Bitcoin down to USD 76k
Volatility: The VIX sideways around 19
My View: Reading between the lines, the picture is no longer as clean as markets would like to believe.
I see the AI narrative clearly shifting from excitement to escalation.
Anthropic is reportedly seeking funding at a USD 900 billion valuation, above OpenAI, which was valued at USD 852 billion just weeks ago. Backed by massive capital injections from players like Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank, the scale of investment is unprecedented.
This is exactly the point. Competition in AI is no longer about innovation. It is about financial firepower. Hundreds of billions are being deployed, with trillions potentially to follow. However, one key question remains unanswered: Where are the sustainable business models and future cash flows?
At current trajectories, this risks evolving into a classic capital destruction cycle, a race where multiple players spend aggressively, compress margins, and struggle to monetize at scale. A potential lose-lose scenario.
At the same time, markets are facing rising yields, elevated energy prices driven by geopolitical tensions, and increasingly stretched positioning.
The combination matters. We have:
Expensive equity markets
Rising cost of capital
Massive upfront investment cycles
And unresolved geopolitical risks
Rising prices for goods
Depressed consumer sentiment
Greedy investors sentiment
That is not a stable equilibrium. The market continues to trade on pure optimism. But the margin for error is almost zero.
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