01.09.25 - Tariff saga

Late Friday, after market close, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that most of the tariffs initiated under former President Trump were unlawful. The decision covered “reciprocal” tariffs on several countries, including China, Canada, and Mexico, as well as duties tied to fentanyl trafficking.

The court found that these measures represented an overreach of presidential authority. However, the ruling allows the tariffs to remain in place until October 14, providing the Trump administration with time to appeal the case to the US Supreme Court.

Markets: US markets closed for Labor Day on Monday

• Gold reaches new record level trading at USD 3,470/oz

• US dollar down

My View: After Fed saga comes the tariff saga. The US has entered a new chapter in its ongoing trade tensions. At first sight, the ruling could be seen as supportive for equities, suggesting that a rollback of tariffs may ease costs for businesses and consumers.
However, the situation remains highly uncertain. The Trump administration still has time to appeal, and the ultimate outcome will likely drag on for weeks or months.

For corporates, this uncertainty makes planning strategies difficult as well as for investors. While reduced tariffs could eventually prove supportive for global trade and corporate earnings, the near-term outlook is clouded by legal and political risk.

I see no reason at this stage to adjust allocations. The ETFMandate portfolio strategy remains on hold, not increasing the equity exposure yet, staying disciplined while monitoring how the legal and political process unfolds.

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