26.01.26 - Roaring Metal prices - falling US dollar

inancial markets are currently dominated by headlines around new record highs in precious metals.

Gold briefly surged above USD 5’100 per ounce before trading slightly below that level, while silver jumped to USD 115 per ounce, gaining more than 10% in a single session.

At the same time US dollar continues to weaken. Signs of big shifts from the US dollar cash into metals.

Markets:

• Commodities:
  Precious metals in a sharp momentum-driven rally
  Gold and silver at extreme levels, fueled by speculative demand

• Currencies:
  US dollar under pressure, supporting hard assets - Swiss franc strong

• Bond yiels: US 10-year yield stable above 4.2%

• Equities: Asia and Europe slightly negative while US markets trading in the green

• Cryptos: Bitcoin below USD 87k, no participation in the current momentum trade

My View: The key questions are how far this rally can go and why investors are increasingly shifting US-dollar cash positions into real assets.

The answer lies in uncertainty and maybe too much of political noise lately.
In an environment marked by geopolitical tensions, elevated asset prices, and declining confidence in fiat purchasing power, capital tends to rotate toward tangible stores of value. Precious metals are currently the primary beneficiary of this shift.

Speculative moves like the current one in metals are extremely difficult to time. From a technical perspective, gold and silver are clearly overbought. However, momentum can persist longer than fundamentals alone would suggest.

History shows:

• Strong momentum phases often extend further than expected

• But once the move turns, corrections tend to be sharp and fast

As steep moves go up, they can also fall just as steeply.

As long as this momentum phase continues, I stay the course. I have not taken profits yet, but I remain highly attentive to early signs of exhaustion or reversal.

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