13.05.2026 - Rising Bond Yields
Globally, bond yields continue to rise as investors increasingly dump government bonds on growing inflation concerns.
The UK 30-year government bond yield climbed to its highest level since 1998. Japan’s 10-year bond yield moved toward 2.6%, levels last seen in 1999. In the US, the 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.5% — the same level where Donald Trump last year stepped back from his “Liberation Day” tariff escalation shortly after announcing it. Meanwhile, the US 30-year yield has clearly moved above the 5% threshold.
Following yesterday’s hot CPI inflation print, today’s wholesale inflation data surprised significantly to the upside as well.
April PPI Inflation Data:
PPI MoM: +1.4% (est. +0.5%)
PPI YoY: +6.0% (est. +4.9%)
Core PPI YoY: +5.2% (est. +4.3%)
Markets: Volatile following the inflation data release
Equities: US futures remain slightly positive but lost some ground pre-market. Asian markets traded mostly higher this morning, while Europe trades mixed
Bonds: Yields continue to rise globally. US 10Y at 4.48%, US 30Y at 5.04%, Japan 10Y at 2.59%
Commodities: il prices continue to climb with WTI above USD 102/barrel and Brent around USD 107/barrel. Precious metals are mixed, with silver rising toward USD 86/oz while gold trades slightly lower near USD 4’685/oz.
Currencies: USD stronger
Cryptos: slight pullback - Bitcoin USD 80k
Volatility: The VIX remains around the 18 level
My View: If investors continue to ignore the inflation shock unfolding right in front of them, then I honestly struggle to understand current market pricing.
Inflation is becoming very real again. And I would not be surprised if the Federal Reserve soon starts discussing rate hikes again rather than remaining calm.
Rising yields are a major issue. Higher mortgage rates, higher refinancing costs for companies, sharply elevated credit card rates in the US, averaging around 21%, and significantly higher funding costs for governments themselves.
Bond investors increasingly seem to understand the situation correctly, while equity investors still blindly trust that the AI boom will overpower every macroeconomic problem.
Historically, bond markets tend to move ahead of the curve. Why should it be different this time?
What was previously only “cooking below the surface” is now becoming increasingly obvious.
And one critical factor remains largely ignored: the Strait of Hormuz is still effectively closed. Energy flows are far from normal, and a quick normalization scenario still appears unrealistic.
I do not want to call the exact timing of a crash. But in my view, markets have rarely been closer to a larger repricing than they are today.
And I am positioned accordingly.
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