20.05.2026 - Nvidia Numbers - Boom or Bust?
Tonight after the market close, Nvidia will report its Q1 earnings results. The world’s largest company, now valued at almost USD 6 trillion, is once again expected to deliver another very strong quarter.
Just a few hours earlier, the Federal Reserve will release the FOMC Meeting Minutes from Jerome Powell’s last meeting, where rates were left unchanged. Since Friday, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh officially took over leadership of the US central bank.
Markets:
Equities: Nvidia is up over 1% pre-market - Tech Futures trading positive as market participants wait for the numbers
My View: Nvidia alone has become one of the biggest drivers of the entire US equity market. A very small number of mega-cap technology companies have generated the majority of the S&P 500’s gains this year, highlighting how concentrated the current rally has become. Nvidia’s Year-To-Date (YTD) contribution to the S&P 500's performance is approximately 20% of the index's total gain. The stock has delivered a YTD total return of roughly 19%. The S&P 500 Index is up almost 9% YTD.
At current valuation levels, simply beating estimates may no longer be enough. Expectations are extremely high and the market likely needs numbers that significantly exceed forecasts alongside another very optimistic outlook for the stock to react positively.
At the same time, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang will almost certainly continue to present a highly optimistic long-term vision for AI and future demand growth, something investors have become used to over recent quarters.
Personally, I do not want to place a directional bet ahead of tonight’s release. The AI sector remains heavily crowded and, in my view, clearly overpriced overall. While upside potential appears increasingly limited after the massive rally, downside risks continue to grow if expectations are no longer met perfectly.
The Fed Minutes could also reveal how divided the Federal Reserve currently is — normally not a particularly positive sign for markets, as the interest rate outlook becomes increasingly difficult to anticipate.
Rising uncertainty around monetary policy is usually not a supportive driver for financial markets, especially at a time when valuations already remain stretched across parts of the equity market, inflation seems to get out of control in combination with rising yields.
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