29.06.2026 - Next US-Iran Pause
Friday after market close new attacks started between US-Iran after Iran was Just when markets appeared to believe the worst was behind them, tensions in the Middle East flared up once again.
Late on Friday, shortly after US markets had closed, fresh hostilities erupted between the United States and Iran. The renewed escalation followed reports that Iran had attacked a commercial cargo vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz earlier that day, prompting retaliatory US strikes.
Both sides quickly agreed to another temporary truce. According to US officials, Washington and Tehran have agreed to halt military operations and resume negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and other outstanding issues. Shipping traffic through the world's most important energy chokepoint has continued, although at a slower pace than normal.
Markets: The announcement of the renewed truce came early enough before Monday's market opening to avoid a potential wave of panic selling.
Commodities: Oil prices stopped falling as traders once again priced in a modest geopolitical risk premium
My View: While fears of a complete disruption to energy supplies have eased, uncertainty remains elevated.
As I have repeatedly highlighted over recent weeks, the road to peace is unlikely to be a straight line.
The White House continues to present an optimistic picture, but announcing a deal is one thing, implementing it is another. Rolling back decades of sanctions, rebuilding trust, and agreeing on long-term security arrangements will be far more difficult than issuing positive headlines.
The current agreement clearly provides Iran with breathing room and appears to be favourable for Tehran in the near term. At the same time, there remains a meaningful risk of renewed escalation at any moment. One incident, one miscalculation, or one failed negotiation could quickly reverse the recent progress.
For investors, the key message remains unchanged: do not mistake a pause in hostilities for a lasting peace. The geopolitical risk premium has declined, but it has certainly not disappeared.
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