24.06.25 - Markets celebrate a ceasefire

This morning, US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire in the Middle East. However, tensions remain high as Iran fired another round of missiles at Israel, claiming this would be the final round before the ceasefire takes effect. In response, Israel launched missiles at Iran. Both countries are already accusing each other of violating the ceasefire.

Markets: Equities move higher, oil prices slump together with volatility - US dollar weaker together with US yields - Cryptos spiked already yesterday night now trading sideways - gold gives up some ground

My view: A sharp drop in oil prices together with volatility, combined with rising equities, suggests that investors are cheering already about a final resolution to the conflict. However, the ceasefire appears fragile, as both Israel and Iran are already accusing each other of breaching it. The situation remains highly uncertain, and while fears of oil supply disruptions may be seen already priced out, the conflict has not been fully resolved. For now, the risk of a major escalation seems to have diminished, but the situation is far from settled.

Speculative money is clearly driving the markets. Looking at the currency markets, they tell a slightly different story as both, the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, show further strength against major pears, signaling ongoing safe-haven demand from investors.

Despite the ceasefire, the probability of volatility spikes and oil price fluctuations remain high.

Become a member to access more valuable market updates like this.