23.03.2026 - Market Moving Post
US President Donald Trump has postponed threatened military strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure for five days, citing “very good and productive talks” with Iran. The decision delays a previously issued ultimatum that demanded the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
However, Iran publicly denied that any negotiations are taking place, stating there has been neither direct nor indirect communication.
At the same time, tensions on the ground remain elevated. The United Arab Emirates reported new Iranian drone and missile attacks. Israel expanded airstrikes on infrastructure in Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked.
In the meanwhile Iran allowed selective passage only to friendly nations such as India. In countries like Japan, concerns over supply shortages have already led to initial panic buying of everyday goods.
According to IEA (International Energy Agency), more than 40 energy facilities across nine countries have already been severely damaged. The agency warns that disruptions to global supply chains could persist even after the conflict ends.
Markets: Markets reacted immediately to Trump’s post.
Equities: markets jumped in few seconds 3 to 4% ending the day up around +1%
Bonds: yields declined - US 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.35% from 4.45%
Commodities: oil fell sharply - WTI crude oil below USD90/barrel and Brent below USD 10/barrel, while precious metals regained with silver close to USD 70/oz and gold above USD 4’400/oz
Currencies: USD weakened
Cryptos: up with risk-on stance - Bitcoin around USD 70k
Volatility: The VIX fell immediately, remains elevated at 26.
My View: Speculative capital is quickly moving back into risk assets, chasing short-term momentum. Yes, those positioned ahead of the headline could realize rapid gains. But for most participants, this type of environment tends to burn capital rather than create it.
Today’s price action increasingly raises one more time again questions around information asymmetry. The speed and magnitude of reversals suggest that some market participants may be acting ahead of public information.
In earlier times, such a headline-driven reversal would have raised serious questions around market integrity.
What we are seeing is a textbook example of hope-driven pricing. The underlying situation has not changed as the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, military escalation continues, negotiations taking place are not confirmed and as supply disruptions are already material and expanding.
Yet markets react as if a resolution is imminent. This creates a dangerous setup. More importantly:
The warning from the International Energy Agency is being ignored.
This is not a minor disruption, it is a structural shock to global energy supply, with second-round effects on inflation, growth, and supply chains.
Markets are once again choosing to focus on potential positive outcomes while disregarding current realities.
There is no need to chase a relief rally driven by unconfirmed headlines. Fresh capital should only be deployed when: the situation shows clear and verifiable signs of stabilization with the Strait of Hormuz is effectively reopened and overall escalation risks are materially reduced. Until then, maintaining a disciplined and cautious positioning remains the more rational approach.
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