02.06.2026 - IPO Wave — Peak of AI Optimism?

The AI investment boom is no longer limited to public markets. A growing number of the world's most valuable private technology companies are now preparing for stock market listings, potentially creating one of the largest IPO waves in financial history.

This week, AI developer Anthropic officially took its first step toward becoming a publicly traded company. The company announced that it has confidentially filed a draft registration statement (Form S-1) with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Anthropic is currently valued at approximately USD 965 billion, making it one of the most valuable private companies in the world. If market conditions remain supportive, the company could potentially go public as early as this autumn.

Anthropic is not alone.

SpaceX is reportedly targeting an IPO on June 12 and is expected to seek a valuation of at least USD 1.8 trillion. While earlier reports suggested a valuation exceeding USD 2 trillion, the company appears to have slightly lowered expectations following discussions with investors and advisors.

Meanwhile, OpenAI is also widely expected to pursue a public listing later this year, potentially adding another mega-sized IPO to an already crowded pipeline.

The timing is remarkable.

At the same time that private companies are seeking fresh capital, established technology giants continue to raise unprecedented amounts of money to finance the AI arms race. Alphabet shares traded lower after the company announced plans to raise USD 80 billion to fund its expanding AI investments. The transaction ranks among the largest capital raises ever undertaken by a public company.

Markets:

• Equities: Nothing currently appears able to derail the AI rally. Technology shares higher across global markets

My View: Taken together, these developments highlight the enormous capital requirements of the AI revolution. Building AI infrastructure requires massive investments in data centers, semiconductors, energy supply, networking equipment, software development, and highly specialized talent. The industry is consuming capital at a pace rarely seen before.

Markets currently interpret this spending boom as proof of virtually unlimited future growth opportunities. Investors continue to allocate capital aggressively to AI-related companies, pushing valuations across the sector to increasingly extreme levels.

However, history suggests that periods characterized by record IPO activity, aggressive capital raising, and widespread investor enthusiasm often occur during the later stages of investment booms. Companies naturally seek to raise capital when investor appetite is strongest and valuations are most attractive.

The current IPO wave may therefore be another sign that the AI boom is entering a much more mature, and potentially more dangerous phase.

The situation increasingly resembles the final stages of previous technology bubbles. In 1999 and 2000, investors were willing to fund virtually any company associated with the internet revolution. Today, a similar pattern can be observed across the AI ecosystem. Capital continues to flow into companies with limited regard for valuation, profitability, execution risk, or future competition. The narrative has increasingly become more important than the fundamentals.

What concerns me most is the growing disconnect between valuations and economic reality.

Companies are being valued at hundreds of billions, and in some cases nearly trillions, of dollars despite generating little or no profits relative to their market capitalizations. At the same time, the costs associated with the AI buildout continue to rise. Data centers, semiconductors, energy infrastructure, cooling systems, networking equipment, and financing costs are all becoming increasingly expensive.

The key question remains unanswered: who will ultimately earn an attractive return on these enormous investments?

History shows that transformative technologies often create tremendous benefits for society while delivering disappointing returns for investors. Railroads, airlines, telecommunications, and even the internet itself experienced periods of massive overinvestment. Investors became convinced that demand would justify virtually unlimited spending. Eventually, reality caught up with expectations.

Another aspect investors frequently overlook is the impact that large IPOs can have on broader equity markets.

New listings do not create fresh investment capital. Instead, they absorb liquidity from existing investments. As companies such as Anthropic, SpaceX, or OpenAI eventually become part of major equity indices, passive funds and institutional investors will be forced to allocate capital accordingly. In practice, this means selling existing index constituents to make room for the new entrants.

The larger the IPO, the larger this redistribution effect becomes. This process could create additional pressure on today's hyperscalers and market leaders, which currently account for a significant portion of major index performance.

Furthermore, IPOs rarely occur when valuations are depressed. They are typically launched when optimism is abundant and companies can maximize proceeds. Existing shareholders understand this dynamic very well. Founders, venture capital firms, private equity investors, and early employees often seek liquidity after years of paper gains. Once lock-up periods expire, another wave of selling pressure frequently follows as insiders monetize their holdings.

For me, the increasing number of mega-sized AI IPOs is not a bullish signal—quite the opposite.

It suggests that insiders increasingly view current market conditions as an attractive opportunity to cash in. History repeatedly shows that when investors become convinced that a theme can only move higher, risks are often significantly greater than the market is willing to acknowledge.

My view remains unchanged. I continue to question whether artificial intelligence will ultimately prove to be the revolutionary economic transformation that markets currently expect. In many cases, what was previously referred to as "digital transformation" has simply been rebranded as "AI transformation."

AI will undoubtedly remain part of our future and will improve efficiency across many industries and business processes. However, that does not automatically justify today's valuations or guarantee attractive investment returns.

At current price levels, markets are increasingly pricing in a near-perfect future. Any disappointment in growth, profitability, adoption rates, financing conditions, regulation, or competitive dynamics could trigger a significant repricing across the sector.

Whether the upcoming IPO wave marks the beginning of another speculative leg higher or ultimately becomes remembered as a sign of peak optimism remains one of the most important questions investors should monitor over the coming months.

To me, the valuations increasingly look speculative.

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