02.05.25 - Hope on US-China talks

China said it is evaluating the possibility of starting trade negotiations with the US. Chinese authorities reiterated that the US must remove all unilateral tariffs as a gesture of sincerity to create the conditions for meaningful dialogue.

On the macro front, the US nonfarm payrolls for April surprised to the upside, with 177’000 jobs added (est. 140’000).

Markets: Major stock market indices extend their gains, US dollar down while US 10-year yield is up and back at 4.3% level, cryptos with an upbeat move, Bitcoin price takes direction back to USD 100’000.

My view: The buy the dip dynamic continues. The S&P 500 index is on the way for a 9 day winning streak, longest since 20 years.

The "buy-the-dip" dynamic remains firmly in play, with the S&P 500 on track for a nine-day winning streak, its longest in over two decades.

I did not count with such a strong move, especially given the growing list of macro uncertainties and early signs of economic softening. Despite the momentum, I remain cautious and keep my portfolio allocation unchanged, as I still see a higher probability for renewed downside pressure ahead.

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