06.05.2026 - Deal or NO DEAL
US President Donald Trump announced last night the end of “Project Freedom”, stating that the US should be close to reaching a deal with Iran.
Starting the day, Trump warned that if Iran does not accept a peace agreement, “the bombs are back”.
At the time of writing and publishing this, Iran has not yet officially responded.
Markets: already celebrate the announcement
Equities: jump globally
Bonds: yields slightly lower - Japan 10y at 2.50%, US 10y at 4.34%, US 30y at 4.94%
Commodities: oiI prices falling sharply - USD 93/barrel and Brent at USD 102/barrel.
Precious metals jump - silver above USD 77/oz and gold around USD 4’675/ozCurrencies: USD falls
Cryptos: higher - Bitcoin at USD 81k
Volatility: The VIX falls below 17
My View: The news came out last night. My immediate Instagram post already carried the hashtag #TACOTuesday, because for me this announcement had very similar characteristics to previous Trump headlines and policy reversals.
The key question remains: why would the US stop such a naval operation before an actual deal is reached?
“Project Freedom” already looks questionable from an operational perspective. The US Navy reportedly guided only two vessels through the Strait during two days of operations. That hardly changes the broader situation around global energy flows.
We are now waiting for Iran’s reaction. At the same time, the question remains what incentive the Iranian regime would have to suddenly accept a deal under pressure.
Markets are already trading as if the conflict is effectively over, the Strait of Hormuz fully normalized again, and global oil flows secured.
In my view, investors continue to underestimate broader structural risks building beneath the surface: rising debt levels, persistent inflation pressures, elevated bond yields, high leverage across markets, geopolitical uncertainty, and growing political instability.
Despite all these unresolved risks, markets continue to price in ‘over perfection’.
Become a member to access more valuable market updates like this
