11.05.2026 - Casino
US markets continue to trade around record levels despite the recent strong performance.
Warren Buffett recently stated in an interview that the stock market has increasingly become a casino, adding that speculative behavior and gambling activity among investors may be at the highest levels ever observed: “We’ve never had people in a more gambling mood than now”.
At the same time, Donald Trump described the current ceasefire with Iran as being “on life support”, highlighting how fragile the geopolitical situation remains.
India called for emergency energy measures, while authorities are increasingly encouraging people to work from home in order to reduce pressure on energy consumption and transportation systems
Markets: euphoria
Equities: similar picture to last days - US strong, rest of the world sideways to weaker; Indian stocks fall
Bonds: yields move clearly higher - US 10y at 4.41%, US 30y at 4.98%, Japan 10y at 2.53%
Commodities: oiI prices moved higher fall - USD 98/barrel and Brent at USD 104/barrel.
Precious metals: silver with strong rally to USD 86/oz while gold moved 0.5% up to USD 4’740/ozCurrencies: USD unchanged, Indian Rupee under pressure
Cryptos: moved higher - Bitcoin towards USD 82k
Volatility: The VIX light uptick above 18
My View: Current market behavior increasingly reminds me of patterns seen during the dot-com bubble. Investors continue to chase momentum aggressively, while speculative positioning appears extremely stretched.
Following my Market Insights over recent months, I repeatedly shared my impression that a large number of market participants are no longer investing rationally, but rather gambling on ever-higher prices.
At the same time, geopolitical escalation risks may be closer again than at any point since the ceasefire started. Several Asian countries have already begun evaluating contingency measures to address potential energy shortages, yet financial markets continue to largely ignore these developments.
The semiconductor sector, which has seen an extraordinary rally, up more than 60% in the last 30 days, could also become vulnerable if the Strait of Hormuz disruption persists. Helium supply chains are increasingly under pressure, an important factor for global chip production. Any prolonged shortages could eventually force production disruptions within the semiconductor industry.
With investor positioning reaching increasingly extreme levels, offering opportunities, I implemented several transactions today, both on the short side and into selected long-term investment opportunities. More to be mentioned in my next Weekly Market Snapshot.
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