14.09.2026 - AI Stress
AI leaders call for a slowdown. Fresh concerns around the rapid development of artificial intelligence are putting AI-related stocks under pressure.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said the company welcomes safety requirements for frontier AI labs and joined other leading AI executives over the weekend in calling for the industry to slow the pace of AI development.
Altman warned of two ways AI progress could go “very badly”: society could ultimately lose control of the future to AI, or too much power could become concentrated in the hands of a single person or company.
The warnings are not limited to OpenAI. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has also called for an immediate slowdown in the development of increasingly powerful AI models, warning that capabilities are advancing faster than the industry’s ability to ensure adequate safety and oversight.
Safety concerns have intensified significantly in recent days. Last week, an Anthropic researcher resigned, warning that some of those developing advanced AI systems believe the technology could pose catastrophic risks before the end of the decade. Employees at both Anthropic and rival OpenAI have subsequently raised further concerns about the potential consequences of increasingly powerful AI systems.
Markets:
Equities: Falling mostly led by Tech and AI related stocks
Bonds: yields moving higher - US 2y yield above 2.6%, US 10y yield above 4.99%, Japan 10y yield 2.99%
Commodities: Oil prices rise again, WTI at USD 104/barrel and Brent around USD 109/barrel
Precious metals prices fall, gold USD 4’275/oz, silver above USD 63/ozCurrencies: US dollar moving higher - Japanese Yen falls sharply USDJPY 154
Cryptos: rise - Bitcoin towards USD 78k
Volatility: The VIX index moves higher above 17 (last opportunity for hedging!)
My View: The fact that the companies leading the AI race are themselves calling for the race to slow down should get investors’ attention.
After the extraordinary amount of capital that has flowed into AI infrastructure, semiconductors and related companies, this raises an important question for financial markets:
What happens to today’s extremely optimistic AI growth assumptions if safety concerns, regulation or the industry itself ultimately forces AI development to slow down?
But there may be another dimension investors should consider. Do the leading US AI companies increasingly realize that China is catching up faster than previously expected?
The AI race between the US and China is in full swing, and recent developments suggest that the technological gap has narrowed substantially. This makes calls from some of America's most important AI companies to slow frontier development particularly interesting.
President Trump highlighted exactly this strategic dilemma over the weekend, rejecting calls for a slowdown and stressing the importance of winning the AI race against China.
This creates an extraordinary contradiction: The US government wants to accelerate to beat China, while some of America's leading AI companies are warning that development is moving too fast.
At the same time, the financial stakes are enormous. Anthropic is moving toward a potential IPO, while OpenAI has postponed its own listing plans until next year. Both companies will continue to require enormous amounts of capital to finance the computing power and infrastructure needed to remain at the frontier.
So another question arises: Could the window of opportunity to raise enormous amounts of investor capital be starting to close?
The entire AI investment story still depends heavily on expectations of extraordinary future growth. If concerns about safety intensify, China continues to close the technological gap and broader financial markets enter a period of turbulence, investor appetite, and valuations, could change very quickly.
What looks like an almost unlimited pool of capital today may not remain available indefinitely.
This story adds another layer of uncertainty to an already challenging market environment. Technology and AI-related stocks have held up remarkably well despite the growing number of red flags across financial markets.
Investor complacency could suddenly come to an end, as highlighted in my Weekend Mailing. If sentiment turns decisively, a highly crowded market could quickly face a situation where almost everyone tries to exit through the same door at the same time.
In such an environment, a market drawdown could unfold very quickly.
At the same time, markets are increasingly pricing in another Fed rate hike, with the probability now around 90%, compared with roughly 50/50 only last week.
Higher bond yields, oil above USD 100, renewed inflation pressure, geopolitical risks and now growing uncertainty surrounding the AI investment story create an increasingly challenging combination.
The number of flashing red lights is increasing, while markets are still pricing in remarkably little stress.
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